Happy Valley · 2020-11-11
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLONEL, ridden by V Borges and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/2, with WINNING WAYS second and HERE COMES TED third. The 2.6 favourite HERE COMES TED finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | COLONEL V 1.10.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 3 | 6.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | WINNING WAYS H/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 9.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | HERE COMES TED CP K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 2.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 2 | 46.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | TOP MILITARY B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 6 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | MAGIC SUPREME CP/XB/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 5 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | SUPER EIGHTEEN B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 12 | 22.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | SUPER KIN B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 5.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 4 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | ALLOY KING H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 7 | 16.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | COUNTRY BOY H1/P1/TT N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 9 | 98.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | LIGHT OF WANSHI TT1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 11 | 47.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HERE COMES TED | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | MAGIC SUPREME | 15.1% | 6.61 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | TOP MILITARY | 14.2% | 7.03 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | COLONEL | 13.2% | 7.59 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | SUPER KIN | 7.6% | 13.13 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | SUPER EIGHTEEN | 6.9% | 14.50 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | WINNING WAYS | 6.8% | 14.74 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 6.2% | 16.24 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | LIGHT OF WANSHI | 4.1% | 24.22 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | ALLOY KING | 2.2% | 44.79 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR | 1.2% | 82.18 | 4 |
| 12 | 4 | COUNTRY BOY | 1.1% | 91.39 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 61
PLACE
3 12.5
9 21
11 24.5
QUINELLA
9,11 204
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 33.5
3,11 33
9,11 68
FORECAST
9,11 547
TIERCE
9,11,3 1,112
TRIO
3,9,11 142
FIRST 4
3,7,9,11 1,319
QUARTET
9,11,3,7 26,685
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/9 1,065
4/11 221.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 30.5
A3 —