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Happy Valley · 2020-11-11

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SKY DARCI, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-3/4, with HARRIER JET second and IGNITING third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SKY DARCI TT 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 7 1.6 2-3/4
2 11 HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 10 23.0 2-3/4
3 8 IGNITING K C Leung · K W Lui 6 17.0 3
4 10 CUE THE MUSIC B/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris 3 17.0 3-1/4
5 2 LOVING A BOOM B-/TT A Badel · R Gibson 9 14.0 3-1/4
6 4 CELESTIAL POWER B1 K Teetan · F C Lor 1 12.0 3-1/4
7 6 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 11 36.0 4-1/4
8 7 FLYING BONUS Z Purton · C H Yip 12 6.3 5-1/4
9 12 TOP SCORE TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 42.0 5-1/2
10 5 FARSHAD CP H N Wong · Y S Tsui 5 33.0 6
11 9 LUMEN BABA SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 2 43.0 8-1/2
12 3 LITTLE BIRD V K H Chan · K L Man 8 96.0 16

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY DARCI2. HARRIER JET+2.75L3. IGNITING+3L4. CUE THE MUSIC+3.25L5. LOVING A BOOM+3.25L6. CELESTIAL POWER+3.25L7. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO+4.25L8. FLYING BONUS+5.25L9. TOP SCORE+5.5L10. FARSHAD+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY DARCI (58.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SKY DARCI 58.0% 1.72 1
2 4 CELESTIAL POWER 7.4% 13.49 6
3 7 FLYING BONUS 5.8% 17.16 8
4 6 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO 4.7% 21.44 7
5 2 LOVING A BOOM 4.5% 22.27 5
6 10 CUE THE MUSIC 4.1% 24.26 4
7 11 HARRIER JET 3.9% 25.64 2
8 5 FARSHAD 3.6% 27.88 10
9 12 TOP SCORE 3.3% 30.20 9
10 3 LITTLE BIRD 2.2% 44.78 12
11 8 IGNITING 1.3% 76.41 3
12 9 LUMEN BABA 1.1% 91.14 11
SKY DARCI — wonCELESTIAL POWERFLYING BONUSCALIFORNIA GUNGHOLOVING A BOOMCUE THE MUSICHARRIER JETFARSHADTOP SCORELITTLE BIRDIGNITINGLUMEN BABA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 11.5

8 40.5

11 42.5

QUINELLA

1,11 135

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 51.5

1,11 56

8,11 333.5

FORECAST

1,11 160

TIERCE

1,11,8 1,789

TRIO

1,8,11 554

FIRST 4

1,8,10,11 1,545

QUARTET

1,11,8,10 15,907

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,11/1,8,11 13,677

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 86.5

1/11 191

SIX UP

9/7/1/6/1/1 264,519

9,11/3,7/1,3/2,6/1,11/1,11 9,363

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

6/1/1 513

6/1/11 1,304