Happy Valley · 2020-11-11
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SKY DARCI, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-3/4, with HARRIER JET second and IGNITING third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SKY DARCI TT 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 1.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | IGNITING K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 6 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | CUE THE MUSIC B/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 3 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | LOVING A BOOM B-/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 9 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | CELESTIAL POWER B1 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 11 | 36.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FLYING BONUS Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 12 | 6.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | TOP SCORE TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 4 | 42.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | FARSHAD CP H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 33.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | LUMEN BABA SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 2 | 43.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | LITTLE BIRD V K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 8 | 96.0 | 16 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SKY DARCI | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | CELESTIAL POWER | 7.4% | 13.49 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | FLYING BONUS | 5.8% | 17.16 | 8 |
| 4 | 6 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 4.7% | 21.44 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | LOVING A BOOM | 4.5% | 22.27 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | CUE THE MUSIC | 4.1% | 24.26 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | HARRIER JET | 3.9% | 25.64 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | FARSHAD | 3.6% | 27.88 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | TOP SCORE | 3.3% | 30.20 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | LITTLE BIRD | 2.2% | 44.78 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | IGNITING | 1.3% | 76.41 | 3 |
| 12 | 9 | LUMEN BABA | 1.1% | 91.14 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 16
PLACE
1 11.5
8 40.5
11 42.5
QUINELLA
1,11 135
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 51.5
1,11 56
8,11 333.5
FORECAST
1,11 160
TIERCE
1,11,8 1,789
TRIO
1,8,11 554
FIRST 4
1,8,10,11 1,545
QUARTET
1,11,8,10 15,907
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,11/1,8,11 13,677
7TH DOUBLE
1/1 86.5
1/11 191
SIX UP
9/7/1/6/1/1 264,519
9,11/3,7/1,3/2,6/1,11/1,11 9,363
3 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
6/1/1 513
6/1/11 1,304