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Happy Valley · 2020-11-11

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. NAMJONG PLUS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by HD, with REEL BIZZY second and WORLD FAMOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite SMILING CITY finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly 1.40.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 1 6.4 HD
2 2 REEL BIZZY Closed strongly B Z Purton · C S Shum 8 6.6 HD
3 3 WORLD FAMOUS B/XB V Borges · P F Yiu 5 10.0 1-1/2
4 8 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · A T Millard 3 8.0 2-1/2
5 7 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · F C Lor 4 24.0 3
6 4 DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 9 16.0 3
7 11 SMILING CITY SR J Moreira · D J Whyte 12 3.5 3-1/2
8 5 LEGION OF MERIT N Callan · D J Hall 2 125.0 5
9 10 LEAP OF FAITH A Badel · J Size 7 4.6 6
10 9 DIVINE UNICORN TT K C Leung · W Y So 11 27.0 7-3/4
11 1 HAPPY MY BROTHER B1 H N Wong · K W Lui 6 67.0 9-1/4
12 12 HAPPY FORTUNE Led early H/P/XB/TT H T Mo · L Ho 10 37.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NAMJONG PLUS2. REEL BIZZY+0.2L3. WORLD FAMOUS+1.5L4. GIFT OF LIFELINE+2.5L5. FLASH FAMOUS+3L6. DELIGHTFUL LAOS+3L7. SMILING CITY+3.5L8. LEGION OF MERIT+5L9. LEAP OF FAITH+6L10. DIVINE UNICORN+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick NAMJONG PLUS (18.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 NAMJONG PLUS 18.5% 5.39 1
2 10 LEAP OF FAITH 15.0% 6.65 9
3 2 REEL BIZZY 14.8% 6.75 2
4 11 SMILING CITY 11.6% 8.63 7
5 4 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 10.2% 9.76 6
6 7 FLASH FAMOUS 8.3% 12.00 5
7 3 WORLD FAMOUS 6.7% 14.83 3
8 8 GIFT OF LIFELINE 6.5% 15.37 4
9 9 DIVINE UNICORN 4.4% 22.93 10
10 1 HAPPY MY BROTHER 1.6% 61.96 11
11 12 HAPPY FORTUNE 1.5% 65.54 12
12 5 LEGION OF MERIT 0.7% 142.07 8
NAMJONG PLUS — wonLEAP OF FAITHREEL BIZZYSMILING CITYDELIGHTFUL LAOSFLASH FAMOUSWORLD FAMOUSGIFT OF LIFELINEDIVINE UNICORNHAPPY MY BROTHERHAPPY FORTUNELEGION OF MERIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 64.5

PLACE

2 21

3 35

6 20.5

QUINELLA

2,6 164

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 112

2,6 54

3,6 91

FORECAST

6,2 367

TIERCE

6,2,3 2,819

TRIO

2,3,6 502

FIRST 4

2,3,6,8 787

QUARTET

6,2,3,8 15,125

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,5/2,3,6 22,993

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 27

5TH DOUBLE

1/2 143

1/6 702

TRIPLE TRIO

3,7,9/1,3,5/2,3,6 817,578

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,7,9/1,3,5/Any Combination 3,629