Happy Valley · 2020-11-11
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BEST FOR YOU, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by N, with ZHAN JIANG ROCKS second and LADY FIRST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite LADY FIRST finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 3 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 7.6 | N |
| 3 | 9 | LADY FIRST Led early CP/H/XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.9 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | ROYAL RACER Closed strongly V C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 9.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | MALDIVES XB N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 2 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | HAPPY ICHIBAN B A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 7 | 23.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | JUDY'S STAR A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 8.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | COMPASSION STAR T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 1 | 42.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | AFTER ME Closed strongly H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 10 | 35.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | FRESH POWER H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 54.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | VOLPINO H-/XB-/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 4 | 55.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LADY FIRST | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | ROYAL RACER | 15.5% | 6.45 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | MALDIVES | 13.0% | 7.70 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 10.2% | 9.81 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | JUDY'S STAR | 10.1% | 9.91 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | BEST FOR YOU | 6.8% | 14.68 | 1 |
| 7 | 10 | HAPPY ICHIBAN | 6.4% | 15.61 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | VOLPINO | 4.8% | 20.70 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | COMPASSION STAR | 4.0% | 24.84 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | AFTER ME | 1.4% | 70.29 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | FRESH POWER | 0.9% | 116.29 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 106
PLACE
3 22.5
7 26
9 13.5
QUINELLA
3,7 260
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 88
3,9 39.5
7,9 51.5
FORECAST
7,3 592
TIERCE
7,3,9 2,371
TRIO
3,7,9 270
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 396
QUARTET
7,3,9,8 11,284
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,9,11/3,7,9 7,900
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 44.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
9/3 88.5
9/7 411