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Happy Valley · 2020-11-11

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BEST FOR YOU, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by N, with ZHAN JIANG ROCKS second and LADY FIRST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite LADY FIRST finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 10.0 N
2 3 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So 11 7.6 N
3 9 LADY FIRST Led early CP/H/XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 2.9 1/2
4 8 ROYAL RACER Closed strongly V C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 9.0 1-3/4
5 5 MALDIVES XB N Callan · D J Hall 2 3.4 1-3/4
6 10 HAPPY ICHIBAN B A Hamelin · D J Whyte 7 23.0 3-1/2
7 1 JUDY'S STAR A Badel · P O'Sullivan 5 8.6 5-1/4
8 4 COMPASSION STAR T Piccone · K L Man 1 42.0 5-3/4
9 6 AFTER ME Closed strongly H W Lai · D E Ferraris 10 35.0 6-1/4
10 11 FRESH POWER H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 54.0 6-3/4
11 2 VOLPINO H-/XB-/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 4 55.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEST FOR YOU2. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+0.05L3. LADY FIRST+0.5L4. ROYAL RACER+1.75L5. MALDIVES+1.75L6. HAPPY ICHIBAN+3.5L7. JUDY'S STAR+5.25L8. COMPASSION STAR+5.75L9. AFTER ME+6.25L10. FRESH POWER+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LADY FIRST (26.9%) finished 3rd — the winner BEST FOR YOU was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LADY FIRST 26.9% 3.72 3
2 8 ROYAL RACER 15.5% 6.45 4
3 5 MALDIVES 13.0% 7.70 5
4 3 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 10.2% 9.81 2
5 1 JUDY'S STAR 10.1% 9.91 7
6 7 BEST FOR YOU 6.8% 14.68 1
7 10 HAPPY ICHIBAN 6.4% 15.61 6
8 2 VOLPINO 4.8% 20.70 11
9 4 COMPASSION STAR 4.0% 24.84 8
10 6 AFTER ME 1.4% 70.29 9
11 11 FRESH POWER 0.9% 116.29 10
LADY FIRSTROYAL RACERMALDIVESZHAN JIANG ROCKSJUDY'S STARBEST FOR YOU — wonHAPPY ICHIBANVOLPINOCOMPASSION STARAFTER MEFRESH POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 106

PLACE

3 22.5

7 26

9 13.5

QUINELLA

3,7 260

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 88

3,9 39.5

7,9 51.5

FORECAST

7,3 592

TIERCE

7,3,9 2,371

TRIO

3,7,9 270

FIRST 4

3,7,8,9 396

QUARTET

7,3,9,8 11,284

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,9,11/3,7,9 7,900

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 44.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

9/3 88.5

9/7 411