Happy Valley · 2020-11-11
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LOBO'S LEGEND, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1/2, with HARMONY N HOME second and HIGH RISE SOLDIER third. The 3.4 favourite HIGH RISE SOLDIER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | HARMONY N HOME A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 9.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 10 | 3.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | WINNING FEELING B K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 9 | 6.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SAVAQUIN T Piccone · J Size | T Piccone | J Size | 4 | 37.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | FLYING SWORD CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | GREEN REIGN V-/B2 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 4.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | MAGIC LEGEND H K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 35.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER DOBBIN B1 A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 12 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 8 | 175.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | TELECOM SMART H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 3 | 93.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | HAFEET ALAIN B C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 11 | 86.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | GREEN REIGN | 26.5% | 3.78 | 7 |
| 2 | 7 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 13.6% | 7.37 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | HARMONY N HOME | 12.4% | 8.08 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | WINNING FEELING | 11.9% | 8.42 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 11.2% | 8.92 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | FLYING SWORD | 10.6% | 9.48 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | SUPER DOBBIN | 5.3% | 18.97 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | SAVAQUIN | 3.3% | 29.96 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | MAGIC LEGEND | 1.8% | 54.38 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | TELECOM SMART | 1.6% | 61.48 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | HAFEET ALAIN | 1.1% | 93.35 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 0.8% | 123.40 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 56.5
PLACE
1 18
7 14.5
11 25.5
QUINELLA
1,11 193.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 35.5
1,11 62.5
7,11 52.5
FORECAST
1,11 400
TIERCE
1,11,7 1,245
TRIO
1,7,11 198
FIRST 4
1,7,11,12 303
QUARTET
1,11,7,12 7,264
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 21.5
6TH DOUBLE
6/1 251
6/11 94