Happy Valley · 2020-12-09
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-09 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SPEEDY OPTIMIST, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by DH, with GREAT HARVEST second and VITAL SPRING third. The 3.0 favourite NOBLE DESIRE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST 1.10.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 3 | 4.1 | DH |
| 1 | 12 | GREAT HARVEST 1.10.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 12 | 12.0 | DH |
| 3 | 8 | VITAL SPRING CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 34.0 | SH |
| 4 | 11 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 2 | 16.0 | N |
| 5 | 1 | NOBLE DESIRE CP/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 3.0 | 1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | GOLDEN MISSION TT- H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 5 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B M Barzalona · J Size | M Barzalona | J Size | 11 | 37.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | FOR FUN'S SAKE H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 9.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | ONE STEP AHEAD B/TT H Doyle · P O'Sullivan | H Doyle | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 17.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | KA FORTUNE B N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 4 | 8.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | THE ABRAXAS B-/V2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | SUPER EIGHTEEN B K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 9 | 22.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NOBLE DESIRE | 18.3% | 5.46 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | FOR FUN'S SAKE | 17.9% | 5.58 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST | 13.8% | 7.27 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | KA FORTUNE | 11.6% | 8.61 | 10 |
| 5 | 10 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 8.9% | 11.19 | 9 |
| 6 | 12 | GREAT HARVEST | 6.7% | 14.84 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 5.7% | 17.67 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 5.1% | 19.51 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | VITAL SPRING | 3.8% | 26.13 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | SUPER EIGHTEEN | 3.3% | 30.49 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | THE ABRAXAS | 2.5% | 40.46 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | GOLDEN MISSION | 2.4% | 42.15 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 21
12 60
PLACE
5 16
8 71
12 36.5
QUINELLA
5,12 269
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 187
5,12 95
8,12 527.5
FORECAST
5,12 258
12,5 420
TIERCE
5,12,8 5,162
12,5,8 7,965
TRIO
5,8,12 2,655
FIRST 4
5,8,11,12 7,007
QUARTET
5,12,8,11 47,318
12,5,8,11 75,412
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
2/5 119.5
2/12 826
3 PICK 1
A3 14.5
A2 —
A1 10.1