Happy Valley · 2020-12-09
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT 1.40.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 3.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 6 | 5.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | FAST PACE Closed strongly H/P N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 4 | 3.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | BLOOMING SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 8 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 9 | 73.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | BULLETPROOF Closed strongly B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 11 | 8.4 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | NATURAL WINNER Led early CP/TT K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 12 | 31.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT W Buick · A S Cruz | W Buick | A S Cruz | 10 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | RED MAJESTY CP T Marquand · D A Hayes | T Marquand | D A Hayes | 5 | 81.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 7 | 248.0 | 10 |
| — | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-09 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. INCANTO PREPARED, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with ZHAN JIANG ROCKS second and FAST PACE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED | 30.8% | 3.24 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | BULLETPROOF | 12.8% | 7.79 | 8 |
| 3 | 0 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 11.6% | 8.59 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | FAST PACE | 10.6% | 9.40 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 8.2% | 12.16 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | BLOOMING SPIRIT | 7.2% | 13.86 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | NATURAL WINNER | 6.3% | 15.89 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 6.0% | 16.71 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS | 4.2% | 23.53 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 1.0% | 104.97 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | RED MAJESTY | 0.7% | 139.30 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS | 0.4% | 243.59 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 32
PLACE
1 17.5
4 15
5 14
QUINELLA
1,5 102
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 41
1,5 37.5
4,5 25
FORECAST
5,1 146
TIERCE
5,1,4 352
TRIO
1,4,5 78
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 91
QUARTET
5,1,4,3 1,299
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/1 13.5
5/5 46
12/1 78
12/5 307.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 24.5