Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2020-12-09

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-09 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GLORIOUS ARTIST, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with PACKING WALTHAM second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite MAXIMUS finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.48.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly 1.48.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 8 69.0 SH
2 10 PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly CP1/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 1 9.5 SH
3 2 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly XB R Moore · D J Whyte 4 4.7 1/2
4 9 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So 3 13.0 1-1/4
5 1 BUTTERFIELD TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 8.3 1-3/4
6 7 MAGNIFICENT C Y Ho · K H Ting 6 17.0 2-1/4
7 5 INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 12.0 3-1/2
8 6 BEAR AGAIN Led early SR M Barzalona · D E Ferraris 7 35.0 4
9 11 MAXIMUS SR A Badel · A T Millard 5 4.4 4-1/4
10 3 STAR SHINE Closed strongly B1/TT P-C Boudot · K W Lui 9 19.0 4-1/2
11 12 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D J Hall 2 10.0 4-3/4
12 4 GREEN LUCK V J Moreira · C Fownes 12 6.9 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS ARTIST2. PACKING WALTHAM+0.1L3. SAVVY NINE+0.5L4. TIANCHI MONSTER+1.25L5. BUTTERFIELD+1.75L6. MAGNIFICENT+2.25L7. INSAYSHABLE+3.5L8. BEAR AGAIN+4L9. MAXIMUS+4.25L10. STAR SHINE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN LUCK (15.0%) finished 12th — the winner GLORIOUS ARTIST was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GREEN LUCK 15.0% 6.68 12
2 1 BUTTERFIELD 12.5% 8.02 5
3 2 SAVVY NINE 11.8% 8.50 3
4 11 MAXIMUS 10.0% 10.00 9
5 10 PACKING WALTHAM 9.9% 10.12 2
6 3 STAR SHINE 9.1% 11.02 10
7 9 TIANCHI MONSTER 8.3% 12.04 4
8 12 FLYING QUEST 6.0% 16.69 11
9 5 INSAYSHABLE 5.9% 16.88 7
10 7 MAGNIFICENT 4.2% 24.06 6
11 8 GLORIOUS ARTIST 4.0% 24.88 1
12 6 BEAR AGAIN 3.4% 29.15 8
GREEN LUCKBUTTERFIELDSAVVY NINEMAXIMUSPACKING WALTHAMSTAR SHINETIANCHI MONSTERFLYING QUESTINSAYSHABLEMAGNIFICENTGLORIOUS ARTIST — wonBEAR AGAIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 691

PLACE

2 18.5

8 148

10 28.5

QUINELLA

8,10 4,077.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 543

2,10 94

8,10 987

FORECAST

8,10 6,851

TIERCE

8,10,2 49,964

TRIO

2,8,10 4,584

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 10,383

QUARTET

8,10,2,9 400,999

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 17

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,12/2,8,10 128,846

2,6,12/2,8,10 32,548

8TH DOUBLE

12/8 1,340

12/10 31

SIX UP

1,11/5,11/5,9,10/8,12/2,12/8,10 30,936

TREBLE

8/12/8 12,878

8/12/10 261