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Happy Valley · 2020-12-09

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly 1.48.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 8 69.0 SH
2 0 PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly CP1/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 1 9.5 SH
3 0 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly XB R Moore · D J Whyte 4 4.7 1/2
4 0 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So 3 13.0 1-1/4
5 0 BUTTERFIELD TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 8.3 1-3/4
6 0 MAGNIFICENT C Y Ho · K H Ting 6 17.0 2-1/4
7 0 INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 12.0 3-1/2
8 0 BEAR AGAIN Led early SR M Barzalona · D E Ferraris 7 35.0 4
9 0 MAXIMUS SR A Badel · A T Millard 5 4.4 4-1/4
10 0 STAR SHINE Closed strongly B1/TT P-C Boudot · K W Lui 9 19.0 4-1/2
11 0 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D J Hall 2 10.0 4-3/4
12 0 GREEN LUCK V J Moreira · C Fownes 12 6.9 5-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-09 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GLORIOUS ARTIST, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with PACKING WALTHAM second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite MAXIMUS finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS ARTIST—2. PACKING WALTHAM+0.1L3. SAVVY NINE+0.5L4. TIANCHI MONSTER+1.25L5. BUTTERFIELD+1.75L6. MAGNIFICENT+2.25L7. INSAYSHABLE+3.5L8. BEAR AGAIN+4L9. MAXIMUS+4.25L10. STAR SHINE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN LUCK (15.0%) finished 12th — the winner GLORIOUS ARTIST was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GREEN LUCK 15.0% 6.68 12
2 0 BUTTERFIELD 12.5% 8.02 5
3 0 SAVVY NINE 11.8% 8.50 3
4 0 MAXIMUS 10.0% 10.00 9
5 0 PACKING WALTHAM 9.9% 10.12 2
6 0 STAR SHINE 9.1% 11.02 10
7 0 TIANCHI MONSTER 8.3% 12.04 4
8 0 FLYING QUEST 6.0% 16.69 11
9 0 INSAYSHABLE 5.9% 16.88 7
10 0 MAGNIFICENT 4.2% 24.06 6
11 0 GLORIOUS ARTIST 4.0% 24.88 1
12 0 BEAR AGAIN 3.4% 29.15 8
GREEN LUCKBUTTERFIELDSAVVY NINEMAXIMUSPACKING WALTHAMSTAR SHINETIANCHI MONSTERFLYING QUESTINSAYSHABLEMAGNIFICENTGLORIOUS ARTIST — wonBEAR AGAIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 691

PLACE

2 18.5

8 148

10 28.5

QUINELLA

8,10 4,077.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 543

2,10 94

8,10 987

FORECAST

8,10 6,851

TIERCE

8,10,2 49,964

TRIO

2,8,10 4,584

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 10,383

QUARTET

8,10,2,9 400,999

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 17

A1 —

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,12/2,8,10 128,846

2,6,12/2,8,10 32,548

8TH DOUBLE

12/8 1,340

12/10 31

SIX UP

1,11/5,11/5,9,10/8,12/2,12/8,10 30,936

TREBLE

8/12/8 12,878

8/12/10 261