Happy Valley · 2020-12-09
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B 1.39.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A T Millard | Z Purton | A T Millard | 2 | 5.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SMILING CITY SR J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 5 | 3.9 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly M Barzalona · J Size | M Barzalona | J Size | 9 | 19.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SURREALISM Closed strongly B T Marquand · D E Ferraris | T Marquand | D E Ferraris | 10 | 36.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | REEL BIZZY B P-C Boudot · C S Shum | P-C Boudot | C S Shum | 1 | 7.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 8 | 6.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | NOBLE STEED B W Buick · K W Lui | W Buick | K W Lui | 3 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED Led early TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 12 | 9.7 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT R Moore · Y S Tsui | R Moore | Y S Tsui | 4 | 14.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | SUNNY LAD B/H/TT H Doyle · A S Cruz | H Doyle | A S Cruz | 7 | 25.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | HANG'S DECISION B A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 11 | 45.0 | 11 |
| — | 0 | FLASH FAMOUS · F C Lor | — | F C Lor | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-09 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GIFT OF LIFELINE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A T Millard, won by 3/4, with SMILING CITY second and HELENE WISDOM STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite SMILING CITY finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SMILING CITY | 26.1% | 3.84 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | REEL BIZZY | 11.3% | 8.86 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 10.7% | 9.35 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | HALL OF CHAMP | 10.6% | 9.44 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED | 10.6% | 9.44 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | SUNNY LAD | 8.4% | 11.85 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | JOLLY HONOUR | 5.1% | 19.61 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 4.8% | 20.70 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | NOBLE STEED | 4.3% | 23.20 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | SURREALISM | 2.8% | 35.21 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | SAVAQUIN | 2.7% | 36.95 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | HANG'S DECISION | 2.5% | 39.35 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 50
PLACE
7 32
8 19
12 16.5
QUINELLA
8,12 96.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 80
7,12 84
8,12 38.5
FORECAST
8,12 230
TIERCE
8,12,7 1,690
TRIO
7,8,12 315
FIRST 4
6,7,8,12 1,728
QUARTET
8,12,7,6 27,247
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,9,10/7,8,12 41,047
3 PICK 1
A2 32.5
A3 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
9/8 473
9/12 72.5
TRIPLE TRIO
5,6,11/5,9,10/7,8,12 4,999,793
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,6,11/5,9,10/Any Combination 48,512