Happy Valley · 2020-12-09

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WOOD ON FIRE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by N, with WHISKEY NEAT second and WINS ALL third. The 3.3 favourite INNO LEGEND finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.88

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT 1.09.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho	K C Leung	L Ho	9	122 lb	8.8	N
2	5	WHISKEY NEAT B/H/TT A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	3	129 lb	6.4	N
2	10	WINS ALL TT K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	10	121 lb	7.4	N
4	7	INNO LEGEND CP Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	5	127 lb	3.3	1/2
5	2	HERE COMES TED CP- R Moore · D E Ferraris	R Moore	D E Ferraris	11	131 lb	7.0	1/2
6	3	LAND POWER M Barzalona · A T Millard	M Barzalona	A T Millard	4	131 lb	26.0	2-1/2
7	1	COOLCELEB PC/TT N Callan · T P Yung	N Callan	T P Yung	1	133 lb	41.0	2-3/4
8	11	M M JOHNNY B H N Wong · Y S Tsui	H N Wong	Y S Tsui	6	116 lb	80.0	3-1/2
9	6	DONC JE SUIS CP1 T Marquand · D A Hayes	T Marquand	D A Hayes	8	128 lb	100.0	4
10	8	SUPREME PLUS B/XB C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	7	123 lb	16.0	4-1/4
11	4	COLONEL V V Borges · P F Yiu	V Borges	P F Yiu	12	130 lb	11.0	6-1/4
12	12	NOBLE MAN B/E/TT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	2	119 lb	7.9	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick NOBLE MAN (20.9%) finished 12th — the winner WOOD ON FIRE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	12	NOBLE MAN	20.9%	4.80	12	7.9
2	7	INNO LEGEND	18.6%	5.36	4	3.3
3	5	WHISKEY NEAT	13.9%	7.21	2	6.4
4	10	WINS ALL	9.2%	10.85	2	7.4
5	2	HERE COMES TED	7.3%	13.63	5	7.0
6	4	COLONEL	7.3%	13.69	11	11.0
7	8	SUPREME PLUS	5.6%	17.91	10	16.0
8	1	COOLCELEB	5.4%	18.54	7	41.0
9	6	DONC JE SUIS	4.1%	24.43	9	100.0
10	9	WOOD ON FIRE	3.9%	25.67	1	8.8
11	3	LAND POWER	3.0%	33.01	6	26.0
12	11	M M JOHNNY	0.8%	127.52	8	80.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 88

PLACE

5 20

9 27

10 26

QUINELLA

5,9 107.5

9,10 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 72.5

5,10 83

9,10 120

FORECAST

9,5 354

9,10 402

TIERCE

9,5,10 1,987

9,10,5 2,108

TRIO

5,9,10 647

FIRST 4

5,7,9,10 710

QUARTET

9,5,10,7 11,189

9,10,5,7 11,623

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 29

A3 —

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

11/5 93

11/9 1,338.5

11/10 104

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