Sha Tin · 2021-01-10
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY FUN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with ZONE D second and BRANDING POWER third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY FUN H 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 1.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | ZONE D H1/P1/TT1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | BRANDING POWER C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 4.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | SILVERY WARRIOR TT1 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 6 | 75.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | UNIVERSAL CROWN XB/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | SUNDAY BETTING B-/V1/TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 10 | 54.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | MISTER ARM H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 34.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | FOREVER CITY V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 11.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | STRATHMARTINE C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 1 | 27.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | ON EXCEL STAR K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 7 | 14.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | CRUCIATUS XB/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 2 | 75.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | COMFORT LIFE B-/XB-/V2/TT A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 3 | 18.0 | 17 |
| — | 0 | DIAMOND PIXIU K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY FUN | 27.7% | 3.61 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | ZONE D | 24.9% | 4.02 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | BRANDING POWER | 11.1% | 9.03 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | ON EXCEL STAR | 6.9% | 14.55 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 6.5% | 15.43 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | STRATHMARTINE | 6.0% | 16.63 | 9 |
| 7 | 10 | COMFORT LIFE | 5.1% | 19.60 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | FOREVER CITY | 4.5% | 22.17 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | SILVERY WARRIOR | 4.3% | 23.45 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | MISTER ARM | 1.2% | 80.22 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | CRUCIATUS | 1.0% | 98.26 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | SUNDAY BETTING | 0.8% | 123.82 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 18.5
PLACE
1 14
2 47
4 10.1
QUINELLA
2,4 118
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 109
1,4 20
2,4 53
FORECAST
4,2 218
TIERCE
4,2,1 760
TRIO
1,2,4 142
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 1,352
QUARTET
4,2,1,6 18,942
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 12.5