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Sha Tin · 2021-01-10

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SPEED FAY FAY, ridden by C Schofield and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with PEARL CHAMPION second and GREEN ENVY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GREEN ENVY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B 1.22.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · T P Yung 6 5.9 N
2 11 PEARL CHAMPION Closed strongly B A Hamelin · K L Man 3 32.0 N
3 13 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 12 2.5 1/2
4 12 THUNDER STOMP B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 13 50.0 1-1/4
5 9 COUNTRY BOY Led early H/P/TT K Teetan · J Size 2 28.0 1-3/4
6 1 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT C Soumillon · F C Lor 9 5.2 2-1/4
7 2 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B2 C L Chau · C W Chang 14 18.0 2-1/4
8 5 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT V Borges · W Y So 8 114.0 4
9 4 SUPERB DADDY B- N Callan · D E Ferraris 5 8.0 4-1/4
10 14 UNIVERSAL RECORD C Wong · A T Millard 4 152.0 5-1/2
11 8 WINNING STEED CP Z Purton · K H Ting 11 6.8 7
12 10 VECTOR H/CP1/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 7 62.0 7-1/4
13 6 MULTIPLE STAR H N Wong · C H Yip 1 338.0 11-1/2
14 7 QUICK REPLY B Shinn · D A Hayes 10 274.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEED FAY FAY2. PEARL CHAMPION+0.05L3. GREEN ENVY+0.5L4. THUNDER STOMP+1.25L5. COUNTRY BOY+1.75L6. JOYFUL HEART+2.25L7. GOLDEN FOUR+2.25L8. LIGHT OF WANSHI+4L9. SUPERB DADDY+4.25L10. UNIVERSAL RECORD+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN ENVY (31.3%) finished 3rd — the winner SPEED FAY FAY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 GREEN ENVY 31.3% 3.20 3
2 3 SPEED FAY FAY 16.8% 5.95 1
3 8 WINNING STEED 14.6% 6.85 11
4 1 JOYFUL HEART 8.2% 12.18 6
5 4 SUPERB DADDY 5.9% 16.94 9
6 11 PEARL CHAMPION 5.8% 17.35 2
7 2 GOLDEN FOUR 5.1% 19.66 7
8 9 COUNTRY BOY 4.5% 22.39 5
9 12 THUNDER STOMP 3.4% 29.08 4
10 10 VECTOR 1.6% 60.72 12
11 14 UNIVERSAL RECORD 1.2% 82.02 10
12 5 LIGHT OF WANSHI 0.6% 165.20 8
13 7 QUICK REPLY 0.5% 185.41 14
14 6 MULTIPLE STAR 0.4% 225.67 13
GREEN ENVYSPEED FAY FAY — wonWINNING STEEDJOYFUL HEARTSUPERB DADDYPEARL CHAMPIONGOLDEN FOURCOUNTRY BOYTHUNDER STOMPVECTORUNIVERSAL RECORDLIGHT OF WANSHIQUICK REPLYMULTIPLE STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 59

PLACE

3 17

11 62

13 13.5

QUINELLA

3,11 741

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 190.5

3,13 29.5

11,13 123.5

FORECAST

3,11 1,163

TIERCE

3,11,13 5,375

TRIO

3,11,13 469

FIRST 4

3,11,12,13 5,092

QUARTET

3,11,13,12 114,850

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,9/3,11,13 23,075

3 PICK 1

A2 27

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

9/3 997.5

9/11 788