Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-01-10

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-10 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. LIKE THAT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with NOBLE DESIRE second and UNITED WE STAND third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 LIKE THAT B-/V1 0.57.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 14 3.1 SH
2 14 NOBLE DESIRE V/XB M F Poon · D J Whyte 5 20.0 SH
3 4 UNITED WE STAND B/TT C Soumillon · C S Shum 2 6.0 1-1/4
4 6 DECISIVE TWELVE TT1 C Y Ho · W Y So 6 9.5 2
5 5 AMAZING ROCKY H C L Chau · T P Yung 1 7.7 2-1/4
6 10 GRACYLOVE K C Leung · D J Hall 13 74.0 2-1/2
7 9 GOKO B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 21.0 2-3/4
8 2 MOERAKI H-/B2 C Schofield · C W Chang 12 8.3 2-3/4
9 13 HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 54.0 3-1/4
10 11 SIGHT HERO CP B Shinn · D A Hayes 3 30.0 4-1/2
11 12 CARRY THE DIAMOND B/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 8 10.0 5
12 7 HOLYSHOWCASING A Badel · D E Ferraris 7 104.0 6-1/4
13 3 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT N Callan · K L Man 11 27.0 8-1/2
14 8 STORMTROUPER CP1/TT1 Z Purton · C H Yip 4 14.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIKE THAT2. NOBLE DESIRE+0.1L3. UNITED WE STAND+1.25L4. DECISIVE TWELVE+2L5. AMAZING ROCKY+2.25L6. GRACYLOVE+2.5L7. GOKO+2.75L8. MOERAKI+2.75L9. HAPPY TANGO+3.25L10. SIGHT HERO+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LIKE THAT (20.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LIKE THAT 20.2% 4.95 1
2 5 AMAZING ROCKY 18.6% 5.38 5
3 4 UNITED WE STAND 14.8% 6.76 3
4 8 STORMTROUPER 10.2% 9.81 14
5 6 DECISIVE TWELVE 8.0% 12.44 4
6 14 NOBLE DESIRE 5.3% 19.04 2
7 9 GOKO 4.0% 24.91 7
8 12 CARRY THE DIAMOND 3.8% 26.13 11
9 7 HOLYSHOWCASING 3.3% 29.95 12
10 2 MOERAKI 3.1% 32.51 8
11 13 HAPPY TANGO 2.4% 41.04 9
12 11 SIGHT HERO 2.4% 41.98 10
13 3 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 2.2% 45.92 13
14 10 GRACYLOVE 1.7% 59.27 6
LIKE THAT — wonAMAZING ROCKYUNITED WE STANDSTORMTROUPERDECISIVE TWELVENOBLE DESIREGOKOCARRY THE DIAMONDHOLYSHOWCASINGMOERAKIHAPPY TANGOSIGHT HEROCANTSTOPTHEFEELINGGRACYLOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 31.5

PLACE

1 15.5

4 21

14 47.5

QUINELLA

1,14 319

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 43.5

1,14 109.5

4,14 168

FORECAST

1,14 481

TIERCE

1,14,4 3,050

TRIO

1,4,14 461

FIRST 4

1,4,6,14 1,320

QUARTET

1,14,4,6 21,772

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 20.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

3/1 202.5

3/14 301.5