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Sha Tin · 2021-01-10

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SILVER FIG, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with GUNNAR second and GOLFMAN STAR third. The 4.1 favourite SUPER ALLIANCES finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SILVER FIG B/TT 1.08.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 6 8.7 1/2
2 3 GUNNAR TT B Shinn · C Fownes 3 5.2 1/2
3 9 GOLFMAN STAR K H Chan · F C Lor 9 14.0 1/2
4 10 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B A Hamelin · D J Whyte 5 23.0 2
5 11 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 54.0 2-1/2
6 6 SUPER ALLIANCES P J Moreira · J Size 1 4.1 2-3/4
7 12 SO WE JOY CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 12 172.0 3-1/2
8 5 KEEP YOU WARM B/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 2 4.6 4-1/4
9 2 HARMONY AND RICH Z Purton · Y S Tsui 10 9.9 4-3/4
10 8 BLOTTING PAPER B M F Poon · R Gibson 8 39.0 6-1/2
11 7 SUPER POWER MAN C Schofield · K L Man 7 7.7 7-1/4
12 4 EXCEED THE STARS B A Badel · C S Shum 4 18.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SILVER FIG2. GUNNAR+0.5L3. GOLFMAN STAR+0.5L4. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+2L5. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO+2.5L6. SUPER ALLIANCES+2.75L7. SO WE JOY+3.5L8. KEEP YOU WARM+4.25L9. HARMONY AND RICH+4.75L10. BLOTTING PAPER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER ALLIANCES (21.0%) finished 6th — the winner SILVER FIG was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SUPER ALLIANCES 21.0% 4.76 6
2 5 KEEP YOU WARM 18.8% 5.31 8
3 10 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 11.1% 8.98 4
4 2 HARMONY AND RICH 10.0% 9.96 9
5 7 SUPER POWER MAN 7.2% 13.90 11
6 3 GUNNAR 6.4% 15.73 2
7 1 SILVER FIG 6.0% 16.76 1
8 8 BLOTTING PAPER 5.2% 19.18 10
9 9 GOLFMAN STAR 4.7% 21.42 3
10 4 EXCEED THE STARS 4.0% 24.76 12
11 11 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO 4.0% 24.92 5
12 12 SO WE JOY 1.5% 65.83 7
SUPER ALLIANCESKEEP YOU WARMTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDHARMONY AND RICHSUPER POWER MANGUNNARSILVER FIG — wonBLOTTING PAPERGOLFMAN STAREXCEED THE STARSCALIFORNIA GUNGHOSO WE JOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 87

PLACE

1 27

3 18.5

9 47

QUINELLA

1,3 308

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 110.5

1,9 232.5

3,9 143.5

FORECAST

1,3 740

TIERCE

1,3,9 9,201

TRIO

1,3,9 1,395

FIRST 4

1,3,9,10 10,757

QUARTET

1,3,9,10 195,822

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 29

7TH DOUBLE

11/1 66

11/3 19.5