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Sha Tin · 2021-01-10

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIGHT SUCCESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with TORNADO TWIST second and PRIVATE ROCKET third. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SIGHT SUCCESS E 1.09.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 2 1.1 1-1/2
2 3 TORNADO TWIST B/TT C Soumillon · F C Lor 4 10.0 1-1/2
3 2 PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 19.0 2-3/4
4 8 KING'S CAPITAL XB B Shinn · D A Hayes 7 145.0 4
5 4 SUNSET WATCH K Teetan · K W Lui 3 22.0 4
6 12 FARSHAD CP A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 9 149.0 4-1/4
7 6 MERIDIAN GENIUS CP C Schofield · A T Millard 6 31.0 4-1/2
8 9 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE B1 M Chadwick · C W Chang 8 20.0 5-1/4
9 7 YOUNG PASSION M F Poon · D J Hall 1 88.0 5-1/2
10 1 CIRCUIT SIX B K C Leung · K L Man 12 43.0 5-1/2
11 5 CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 10 224.0 7-1/2
12 10 JUST NOT LISTENING V M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 268.0 10
0 SKY SHOW V Borges · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIGHT SUCCESS2. TORNADO TWIST+1.5L3. PRIVATE ROCKET+2.75L4. KING'S CAPITAL+4L5. SUNSET WATCH+4L6. FARSHAD+4.25L7. MERIDIAN GENIUS+4.5L8. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+5.25L9. YOUNG PASSION+5.5L10. CIRCUIT SIX+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SIGHT SUCCESS (66.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SIGHT SUCCESS 66.9% 1.50 1
2 4 SUNSET WATCH 9.0% 11.16 5
3 2 PRIVATE ROCKET 5.5% 18.13 3
4 3 TORNADO TWIST 5.3% 18.71 2
5 6 MERIDIAN GENIUS 2.6% 38.03 7
6 1 CIRCUIT SIX 2.5% 40.68 10
7 7 YOUNG PASSION 2.1% 46.84 9
8 9 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 2.1% 47.92 8
9 12 FARSHAD 1.8% 55.08 6
10 10 JUST NOT LISTENING 0.9% 105.94 12
11 8 KING'S CAPITAL 0.8% 129.92 4
12 5 CIRCUIT SEVEN 0.5% 215.44 11
SIGHT SUCCESS — wonSUNSET WATCHPRIVATE ROCKETTORNADO TWISTMERIDIAN GENIUSCIRCUIT SIXYOUNG PASSIONPRESIDENT'S CHOICEFARSHADJUST NOT LISTENINGKING'S CAPITALCIRCUIT SEVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 11.5

PLACE

2 27

3 19

11 10.1

QUINELLA

3,11 39.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 74

2,11 29

3,11 20

FORECAST

11,3 54

TIERCE

11,3,2 207

TRIO

2,3,11 116

FIRST 4

2,3,8,11 800

QUARTET

11,3,2,8 4,115

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7/2,3,11 11,313

3 PICK 1

A1 11.5

A3

A2

6TH DOUBLE

3/3 55

3/11 89