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Sha Tin · 2021-01-10

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-10 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUPREME PATROL, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1-1/2, with JADE THEATRE second and TREASURE CHEST third. The 1.8 favourite TREASURE CHEST finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SUPREME PATROL B/TT 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D E Ferraris 6 17.0 1-1/2
2 1 JADE THEATRE B2 C L Chau · K L Man 1 7.5 1-1/2
3 5 TREASURE CHEST B/XB N Callan · P F Yiu 5 1.8 2-1/4
4 3 GREAT SON V/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 3 11.0 2-1/4
5 7 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V K Teetan · L Ho 10 28.0 2-1/2
6 2 LUCKY TURBO B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 12 16.0 5-1/4
7 4 STRATHCLYDE CP/TT C Schofield · A T Millard 2 6.9 5-3/4
8 10 HAPPY WINNER P H N Wong · C W Chang 4 36.0 5-3/4
9 12 DASHING GRACE V/TT2 H T Mo · T P Yung 11 267.0 7-1/2
10 6 MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 16.0 8-1/4
11 11 CORRE RAPIDO B A Badel · R Gibson 8 20.0 8-3/4
12 8 PLANET FLYER B C Wong · W Y So 9 218.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPREME PATROL2. JADE THEATRE+1.5L3. TREASURE CHEST+2.25L4. GREAT SON+2.25L5. CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN+2.5L6. LUCKY TURBO+5.25L7. STRATHCLYDE+5.75L8. HAPPY WINNER+5.75L9. DASHING GRACE+7.5L10. MOON PEAKS+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TREASURE CHEST (27.9%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPREME PATROL was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 TREASURE CHEST 27.9% 3.58 3
2 6 MOON PEAKS 12.7% 7.87 10
3 1 JADE THEATRE 10.9% 9.17 2
4 3 GREAT SON 10.6% 9.41 4
5 4 STRATHCLYDE 10.0% 10.04 7
6 7 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 8.8% 11.31 5
7 2 LUCKY TURBO 7.3% 13.70 6
8 11 CORRE RAPIDO 3.8% 26.06 11
9 9 SUPREME PATROL 2.8% 35.57 1
10 10 HAPPY WINNER 2.0% 51.16 8
11 12 DASHING GRACE 2.0% 51.20 9
12 8 PLANET FLYER 1.2% 83.26 12
TREASURE CHESTMOON PEAKSJADE THEATREGREAT SONSTRATHCLYDECHUNGHWA JINGSHENLUCKY TURBOCORRE RAPIDOSUPREME PATROL — wonHAPPY WINNERDASHING GRACEPLANET FLYER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 171.5

PLACE

1 19.5

5 12

9 39

QUINELLA

1,9 430.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 33

1,9 141

5,9 57.5

FORECAST

9,1 1,228

TIERCE

9,1,5 3,984

TRIO

1,5,9 378

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 607

QUARTET

9,1,5,3 22,791

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/1 60

2/9 1,186.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 36