Sha Tin · 2021-01-17
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ELUSIVE STATE Closed strongly B/TT 1.37.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 5 | 5.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | ENCORE BOY Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 1 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | RED DESERT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 6 | 7.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 5.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | KINGS SHIELD Led early CP Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 3 | 1.7 | 8 |
| 6 | 0 | GREEN LUCK PC M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 4 | 72.0 | 12 |
| 7 | 0 | CIRCUIT GLORY H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 2 | 12.0 | 16-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ELUSIVE STATE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-3/4, with ENCORE BOY second and RED DESERT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite KINGS SHIELD finished 5th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ELUSIVE STATE | 22.3% | 4.48 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | CIRCUIT GLORY | 22.0% | 4.54 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | GLORIOUS ARTIST | 19.4% | 5.14 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | KINGS SHIELD | 14.3% | 6.97 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | RED DESERT | 9.8% | 10.24 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | ENCORE BOY | 7.6% | 13.19 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | GREEN LUCK | 4.5% | 22.05 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 53.5
PLACE
2 13
4 21.5
5 40.5
QUINELLA
2,5 501
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 38.5
2,5 114.5
4,5 129.5
FORECAST
2,5 601
TIERCE
2,5,4 3,167
TRIO
2,4,5 461
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 409
QUARTET
2,5,4,3 9,967
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/2 831.5
2/5 515.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 23