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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NEW FUTURE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-3/4, with CLASSIC POSH second and SUPER RED DRAGON third. The 4.3 favourite TOUCH FAITH finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 NEW FUTURE B/TT 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · T P Yung 8 75.0 1-3/4
2 1 CLASSIC POSH C L Chau · D J Hall 5 8.6 1-3/4
3 3 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 13 10.0 2
4 2 GALACTIC C Schofield · A T Millard 14 5.2 2-1/2
5 13 RUN THE TABLE H M F Poon · K W Lui 2 7.6 3-1/4
6 14 ALL BEST FRIENDS H W Lai · K L Man 4 41.0 3-1/2
7 4 DANDY YEARS B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 9 6.6 3-1/2
8 11 SUNDAY BETTING V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 7 53.0 4-1/2
9 8 TOUCH FAITH P1 J Moreira · J Size 3 4.3 5-1/4
10 5 GLADSOME RYDER V Borges · R Gibson 1 174.0 5-1/2
11 12 ALLOY KING CP M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 78.0 8
12 9 MULTIMORE B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 11 89.0 8-1/4
13 7 STEEL WIN A Hamelin · C W Chang 6 22.0 8-1/2
14 10 LITTLE PLAYER CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 12 5.8 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW FUTURE2. CLASSIC POSH+1.75L3. SUPER RED DRAGON+2L4. GALACTIC+2.5L5. RUN THE TABLE+3.25L6. ALL BEST FRIENDS+3.5L7. DANDY YEARS+3.5L8. SUNDAY BETTING+4.5L9. TOUCH FAITH+5.25L10. GLADSOME RYDER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TOUCH FAITH (30.1%) finished 9th — the winner NEW FUTURE was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 TOUCH FAITH 30.1% 3.32 9
2 1 CLASSIC POSH 14.3% 7.00 2
3 10 LITTLE PLAYER 10.1% 9.88 14
4 13 RUN THE TABLE 9.8% 10.17 5
5 5 GLADSOME RYDER 6.3% 15.97 10
6 3 SUPER RED DRAGON 5.9% 16.85 3
7 4 DANDY YEARS 5.9% 16.87 7
8 2 GALACTIC 5.7% 17.54 4
9 7 STEEL WIN 4.0% 25.04 13
10 9 MULTIMORE 2.7% 36.50 12
11 14 ALL BEST FRIENDS 2.4% 41.91 6
12 11 SUNDAY BETTING 1.0% 95.66 8
13 12 ALLOY KING 0.9% 115.76 11
14 6 NEW FUTURE 0.8% 131.63 1
TOUCH FAITHCLASSIC POSHLITTLE PLAYERRUN THE TABLEGLADSOME RYDERSUPER RED DRAGONDANDY YEARSGALACTICSTEEL WINMULTIMOREALL BEST FRIENDSSUNDAY BETTINGALLOY KINGNEW FUTURE — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 759.5

PLACE

1 23.5

3 33

6 155.5

QUINELLA

1,6 2,600.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 101

1,6 662.5

3,6 864.5

FORECAST

6,1 4,858

TIERCE

6,1,3 38,628

TRIO

1,3,6 5,772

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 5,040

QUARTET

6,1,3,2 181,743

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 18

A1

A2

4TH DOUBLE

11/1 145

11/6 7,580.5