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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HONGKONG GREAT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C S Shum, won by 4-1/4, with PING HAI TREASURE second and PARTY EVERYDAY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite PARTY EVERYDAY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.37.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 HONGKONG GREAT Wire to wire B/TT 1.37.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C S Shum 6 16.0 4-1/4
2 9 PING HAI TREASURE P J Moreira · J Size 12 7.3 4-1/4
3 12 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 3.2 4-1/2
4 6 HARMONY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 19.0 4-3/4
5 11 NOTHING NEW H V Borges · C W Chang 9 71.0 5
6 5 FOODIE PRINCESS Closed strongly TT T Piccone · W Y So 7 6.4 6
7 3 TURIN REDSTAR TT K C Leung · C H Yip 5 5.7 8-3/4
8 14 FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 25.0 9
9 2 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 10 8.6 11-1/2
10 10 BIZ POWER B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan 1 11.0 11-1/2
11 8 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 58.0 12-1/4
12 4 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly B-/TT C Schofield · C Fownes 14 34.0 13
13 1 CONQUEROR B1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 13 55.0 15
14 13 RUBY STARS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 8 289.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HONGKONG GREAT2. PING HAI TREASURE+4.25L3. PARTY EVERYDAY+4.5L4. HARMONY SPIRIT+4.75L5. NOTHING NEW+5L6. FOODIE PRINCESS+6L7. TURIN REDSTAR+8.75L8. FLYING ON THE TURF+9L9. ELITE PATCH+11.5L10. BIZ POWER+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PARTY EVERYDAY (17.6%) finished 3rd — the winner HONGKONG GREAT was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 PARTY EVERYDAY 17.6% 5.68 3
2 9 PING HAI TREASURE 17.4% 5.76 2
3 5 FOODIE PRINCESS 9.6% 10.41 6
4 10 BIZ POWER 9.6% 10.45 10
5 3 TURIN REDSTAR 7.5% 13.42 7
6 2 ELITE PATCH 7.2% 13.93 9
7 4 AMAZING NEWS 6.7% 14.93 12
8 6 HARMONY SPIRIT 6.6% 15.16 4
9 8 JOLLY HONOUR 4.9% 20.40 11
10 14 FLYING ON THE TURF 4.4% 22.80 8
11 7 HONGKONG GREAT 4.0% 24.75 1
12 1 CONQUEROR 2.5% 40.60 13
13 11 NOTHING NEW 1.6% 61.58 5
14 13 RUBY STARS 0.5% 198.37 14
PARTY EVERYDAYPING HAI TREASUREFOODIE PRINCESSBIZ POWERTURIN REDSTARELITE PATCHAMAZING NEWSHARMONY SPIRITJOLLY HONOURFLYING ON THE TURFHONGKONG GREAT — wonCONQUERORNOTHING NEWRUBY STARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 169.5

PLACE

7 65

9 26

12 13

QUINELLA

7,9 884

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 219

7,12 137

9,12 49

FORECAST

7,9 1,252

TIERCE

7,9,12 5,057

TRIO

7,9,12 649

FIRST 4

6,7,9,12 1,621

QUARTET

7,9,12,6 50,285

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31.5

A2

A1

7TH DOUBLE

1/7 1,978.5

1/9 93.5