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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LADY FIRST, ridden by K C Leung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3, with SO AWESOME second and DOUBLE TAKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite KING'S RACE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.38.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT 1.38.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · A S Cruz 6 13.0 3
2 8 SO AWESOME Closed strongly B Z Purton · Y S Tsui 7 6.0 3
3 4 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly V K Teetan · C Fownes 10 6.3 4-1/4
4 7 CROWN AVENUE V A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 10.0 5-3/4
5 1 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man 1 6.2 6-3/4
6 10 KING'S RACE B/TT T Piccone · K H Ting 3 5.2 7-1/2
7 9 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 11 22.0 7-1/2
8 2 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 5 5.9 10-1/4
9 6 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B N Callan · D E Ferraris 9 14.0 10-1/2
10 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly H V Borges · K H Ting 13 49.0 11-3/4
11 13 HAPPY JAI JAI TT H W Lai · D A Hayes 2 42.0 12
12 3 LUMEN BABA XB2 M F Poon · D J Whyte 4 45.0 13-1/2
13 12 SUN SUN FA FA TT H N Wong · W Y So 12 113.0 18-3/4
14 14 IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H C Wong · R Gibson 14 149.0 20-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LADY FIRST—2. SO AWESOME+3L3. DOUBLE TAKE+4.25L4. CROWN AVENUE+5.75L5. RED ELYSEES+6.75L6. KING'S RACE+7.5L7. EL VALIENTE+7.5L8. SKYEY SUPREME+10.25L9. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+10.5L10. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RED ELYSEES (32.6%) finished 5th — the winner LADY FIRST was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 RED ELYSEES 32.6% 3.06 5
2 4 DOUBLE TAKE 12.5% 8.02 3
3 2 SKYEY SUPREME 10.7% 9.31 8
4 8 SO AWESOME 10.6% 9.47 2
5 10 KING'S RACE 8.9% 11.28 6
6 7 CROWN AVENUE 5.3% 18.86 4
7 11 LADY FIRST 4.5% 22.15 1
8 6 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 3.3% 30.21 9
9 9 EL VALIENTE 2.4% 40.89 7
10 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.4% 41.41 10
11 14 IMPECCABLE FELLOW 2.3% 43.17 14
12 13 HAPPY JAI JAI 1.7% 59.24 11
13 12 SUN SUN FA FA 1.4% 70.63 13
14 3 LUMEN BABA 1.3% 76.06 12
RED ELYSEESDOUBLE TAKESKYEY SUPREMESO AWESOMEKING'S RACECROWN AVENUELADY FIRST — wonLONDON LUCKYSTAREL VALIENTEWEALTHY EMPLOYEEIMPECCABLE FELLOWHAPPY JAI JAISUN SUN FA FALUMEN BABA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 136

PLACE

4 20

8 25.5

11 36.5

QUINELLA

8,11 510.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 90.5

4,11 141

8,11 168

FORECAST

11,8 1,045

TIERCE

11,8,4 8,193

TRIO

4,8,11 1,126

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 1,638

QUARTET

11,8,4,7 47,752

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/4,8,11 105,858

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 23

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE

2/8 66

2/11 786

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