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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT 1.38.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · A S Cruz 6 13.0 3
2 0 SO AWESOME Closed strongly B Z Purton · Y S Tsui 7 6.0 3
3 0 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly V K Teetan · C Fownes 10 6.3 4-1/4
4 0 CROWN AVENUE V A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 10.0 5-3/4
5 0 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man 1 6.2 6-3/4
6 0 KING'S RACE B/TT T Piccone · K H Ting 3 5.2 7-1/2
7 0 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 11 22.0 7-1/2
8 0 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 5 5.9 10-1/4
9 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B N Callan · D E Ferraris 9 14.0 10-1/2
10 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly H V Borges · K H Ting 13 49.0 11-3/4
11 0 HAPPY JAI JAI TT H W Lai · D A Hayes 2 42.0 12
12 0 LUMEN BABA XB2 M F Poon · D J Whyte 4 45.0 13-1/2
13 0 SUN SUN FA FA TT H N Wong · W Y So 12 113.0 18-3/4
14 0 IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H C Wong · R Gibson 14 149.0 20-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LADY FIRST, ridden by K C Leung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3, with SO AWESOME second and DOUBLE TAKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite KING'S RACE finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LADY FIRST—2. SO AWESOME+3L3. DOUBLE TAKE+4.25L4. CROWN AVENUE+5.75L5. RED ELYSEES+6.75L6. KING'S RACE+7.5L7. EL VALIENTE+7.5L8. SKYEY SUPREME+10.25L9. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+10.5L10. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RED ELYSEES (32.6%) finished 5th — the winner LADY FIRST was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RED ELYSEES 32.6% 3.06 5
2 0 DOUBLE TAKE 12.5% 8.02 3
3 0 SKYEY SUPREME 10.7% 9.31 8
4 0 SO AWESOME 10.6% 9.47 2
5 0 KING'S RACE 8.9% 11.28 6
6 0 CROWN AVENUE 5.3% 18.86 4
7 0 LADY FIRST 4.5% 22.15 1
8 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 3.3% 30.21 9
9 0 EL VALIENTE 2.4% 40.89 7
10 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.4% 41.41 10
11 0 IMPECCABLE FELLOW 2.3% 43.17 14
12 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 1.7% 59.24 11
13 0 SUN SUN FA FA 1.4% 70.63 13
14 0 LUMEN BABA 1.3% 76.06 12
RED ELYSEESDOUBLE TAKESKYEY SUPREMESO AWESOMEKING'S RACECROWN AVENUELADY FIRST — wonLONDON LUCKYSTAREL VALIENTEWEALTHY EMPLOYEEIMPECCABLE FELLOWHAPPY JAI JAISUN SUN FA FALUMEN BABA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 136

PLACE

4 20

8 25.5

11 36.5

QUINELLA

8,11 510.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 90.5

4,11 141

8,11 168

FORECAST

11,8 1,045

TIERCE

11,8,4 8,193

TRIO

4,8,11 1,126

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 1,638

QUARTET

11,8,4,7 47,752

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/4,8,11 105,858

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 23

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

2/8 66

2/11 786

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