沙田 · 2021-01-17
第 4場
2021-01-17沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由K C Leung策騎、A S Cruz訓練的LADY FIRST勝出，贏出3。SO AWESOME獲得亞軍；DOUBLE TAKE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.2倍大熱門KING'S RACE跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LADY FIRST 後段發力 CP/H/XB/TT 1.38.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 6 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | SO AWESOME 後段發力 B Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 7 | 6.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | DOUBLE TAKE 後段發力 V K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 10 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | CROWN AVENUE V A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 8 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | RED ELYSEES 後段發力 B J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 1 | 6.2 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | KING'S RACE B/TT T Piccone · K H Ting | T Piccone | K H Ting | 3 | 5.2 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | EL VALIENTE 後段發力 B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 22.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | SKYEY SUPREME 早段領放 B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 5 | 5.9 | 10-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 9 | 14.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 後段發力 H V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 13 | 49.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT H W Lai · D A Hayes | H W Lai | D A Hayes | 2 | 42.0 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | LUMEN BABA XB2 M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 4 | 45.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | SUN SUN FA FA TT H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 12 | 113.0 | 18-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 14 | 149.0 | 20-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RED ELYSEES | 32.6% | 3.06 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | DOUBLE TAKE | 12.5% | 8.02 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | SKYEY SUPREME | 10.7% | 9.31 | 8 |
| 4 | 8 | SO AWESOME | 10.6% | 9.47 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | KING'S RACE | 8.9% | 11.28 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | CROWN AVENUE | 5.3% | 18.86 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | LADY FIRST | 4.5% | 22.15 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 3.3% | 30.21 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | EL VALIENTE | 2.4% | 40.89 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE | 2.4% | 41.41 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW | 2.3% | 43.17 | 14 |
| 12 | 13 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 1.7% | 59.24 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | SUN SUN FA FA | 1.4% | 70.63 | 13 |
| 14 | 3 | LUMEN BABA | 1.3% | 76.06 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 136
PLACE
4 20
8 25.5
11 36.5
QUINELLA
8,11 510.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 90.5
4,11 141
8,11 168
FORECAST
11,8 1,045
TIERCE
11,8,4 8,193
TRIO
4,8,11 1,126
FIRST 4
4,7,8,11 1,638
QUARTET
11,8,4,7 47,752
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,5/4,8,11 105,858
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 23
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/8 66
2/11 786