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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN LINK, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with SAM'S LOVE second and GOLD 'N' BOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite SUPER TEN finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.23.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GOLDEN LINK Closed strongly B- 1.23.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu 5 15.0 HD
2 10 SAM'S LOVE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C H Yip 6 6.9 HD
3 12 GOLD 'N' BOLD V V Borges · W Y So 8 156.0 1/2
4 11 CHAMPION PRIDE TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 7 39.0 3/4
5 1 SUPER TEN Led early XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 9 2.0 3/4
6 13 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 2 3.3 1-3/4
7 4 LAND POWER Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard 10 8.9 3
8 6 SAVVY KINGMAN Closed strongly M L Yeung · F C Lor 3 99.0 3-1/4
9 8 STRONG ALLIANCE N Callan · K H Ting 1 212.0 4-1/4
10 7 STARSHIP Closed strongly B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan 11 30.0 5
11 14 SWEETLY BABY Closed strongly V/TT C Wong · C Fownes 14 83.0 5
12 5 PACKING MILES Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 12 163.0 12
13 3 ALL YOU WANT TT1 T Piccone · R Gibson 4 210.0 13-3/4
14 9 KING'S HORN B H T Mo · L Ho 13 286.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN LINK2. SAM'S LOVE+0.2L3. GOLD 'N' BOLD+0.5L4. CHAMPION PRIDE+0.75L5. SUPER TEN+0.75L6. SUN OF MAKFI+1.75L7. LAND POWER+3L8. SAVVY KINGMAN+3.25L9. STRONG ALLIANCE+4.25L10. STARSHIP+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER TEN (29.6%) finished 5th — the winner GOLDEN LINK was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPER TEN 29.6% 3.38 5
2 10 SAM'S LOVE 19.6% 5.11 2
3 13 SUN OF MAKFI 12.8% 7.84 6
4 4 LAND POWER 8.4% 11.84 7
5 14 SWEETLY BABY 7.0% 14.28 11
6 2 GOLDEN LINK 6.4% 15.53 1
7 3 ALL YOU WANT 4.9% 20.53 13
8 7 STARSHIP 3.2% 31.10 10
9 11 CHAMPION PRIDE 2.5% 40.15 4
10 9 KING'S HORN 1.5% 68.62 14
11 12 GOLD 'N' BOLD 1.4% 70.60 3
12 5 PACKING MILES 1.1% 93.58 12
13 6 SAVVY KINGMAN 1.0% 98.76 8
14 8 STRONG ALLIANCE 0.7% 153.59 9
SUPER TENSAM'S LOVESUN OF MAKFILAND POWERSWEETLY BABYGOLDEN LINK — wonALL YOU WANTSTARSHIPCHAMPION PRIDEKING'S HORNGOLD 'N' BOLDPACKING MILESSAVVY KINGMANSTRONG ALLIANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 156.5

PLACE

2 37.5

10 18.5

12 183.5

QUINELLA

2,10 471.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 132.5

2,12 908.5

10,12 578

FORECAST

2,10 892

TIERCE

2,10,12 61,497

TRIO

2,10,12 12,028

FIRST 4

2,10,11,12 17,964

QUARTET

2,10,12,11 493,721

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/2 707

5/10 71.5

3 PICK 1

A2 31

A3

A1