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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PING HAI BRAVO, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with VALIANT DREAM second and CARROLL STREET third. The 2.9 favourite CARROLL STREET finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 PING HAI BRAVO E/TT 0.57.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size 13 11.0 1-3/4
2 3 VALIANT DREAM Z Purton · K W Lui 11 3.5 1-3/4
3 13 CARROLL STREET XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 2.9 2-1/2
4 4 METRO WARRIOR CP-/B2 C L Chau · D A Hayes 9 12.0 3-1/4
5 5 WAR OF COURAGE N Callan · K L Man 10 13.0 3-1/2
6 14 FORTE XB/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 4.5 4
7 2 UTOPIA LIFE V C Schofield · K L Man 7 65.0 5-3/4
8 6 FLASHCARD B/TT C Wong · A S Cruz 14 182.0 6
9 12 SUPER COMMANDER H W Lai · D E Ferraris 12 307.0 6-1/2
10 8 HAPPY GOOD GUYS B K H Chan · P F Yiu 1 25.0 8-3/4
11 9 WINNING BREW B1 M F Poon · F C Lor 3 26.0 11
12 11 BALTIC WHISPER TT H T Mo · C S Shum 5 71.0 11
13 7 GOOD LUCK CHARM H K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 132.0 11-1/4
14 10 ACA POWER XB-/B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 6 223.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PING HAI BRAVO2. VALIANT DREAM+1.75L3. CARROLL STREET+2.5L4. METRO WARRIOR+3.25L5. WAR OF COURAGE+3.5L6. FORTE+4L7. UTOPIA LIFE+5.75L8. FLASHCARD+6L9. SUPER COMMANDER+6.5L10. HAPPY GOOD GUYS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick FORTE (44.2%) finished 6th — the winner PING HAI BRAVO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 FORTE 44.2% 2.26 6
2 13 CARROLL STREET 20.5% 4.89 3
3 9 WINNING BREW 7.1% 14.04 11
4 1 PING HAI BRAVO 5.9% 16.98 1
5 8 HAPPY GOOD GUYS 5.5% 18.22 10
6 3 VALIANT DREAM 5.1% 19.44 2
7 4 METRO WARRIOR 4.3% 23.11 4
8 2 UTOPIA LIFE 2.1% 47.29 7
9 5 WAR OF COURAGE 1.9% 52.43 5
10 11 BALTIC WHISPER 1.7% 57.74 12
11 6 FLASHCARD 0.6% 169.68 8
12 7 GOOD LUCK CHARM 0.4% 280.64 13
13 10 ACA POWER 0.3% 288.34 14
14 12 SUPER COMMANDER 0.3% 360.62 9
FORTECARROLL STREETWINNING BREWPING HAI BRAVO — wonHAPPY GOOD GUYSVALIANT DREAMMETRO WARRIORUTOPIA LIFEWAR OF COURAGEBALTIC WHISPERFLASHCARDGOOD LUCK CHARMACA POWERSUPER COMMANDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 113

PLACE

1 25

3 13

13 15

QUINELLA

1,3 184

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 55

1,13 53

3,13 29

FORECAST

1,3 401

TIERCE

1,3,13 1,280

TRIO

1,3,13 154

FIRST 4

1,3,4,13 313

QUARTET

1,3,13,4 10,339

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,11,13/1,3,13 217,485

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 22

6TH DOUBLE

5/1 1,201

5/3 103.5