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Sha Tin · 2021-01-17

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-17 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TEMPEST EXPRESS, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with THE HULK second and MY SUGAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite MY SUGAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly B-/E/TT 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size 13 10.0 1-1/4
2 10 THE HULK Closed strongly H-/PC-/V2 K H Chan · C Fownes 6 9.4 1-1/4
3 11 MY SUGAR CP K Teetan · K H Ting 14 3.0 2
4 14 ROMANTIC COMBO Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 12 5.6 2-1/2
5 8 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 8 5.4 2-3/4
6 12 TELECOM CHEETAH Closed strongly P/TT H N Wong · C H Yip 9 245.0 3
7 1 VITRALITE Closed strongly H-/XB Z Purton · K W Lui 7 25.0 3-1/2
8 2 STAR OF YUEN LONG Led early B C Schofield · K L Man 10 10.0 4-3/4
9 7 RIGHT CHOICE Closed strongly B M F Poon · F C Lor 11 46.0 4-3/4
10 5 SPARKY TRAIL V Borges · P O'Sullivan 1 51.0 5
11 4 AMARA WIN T Piccone · P F Yiu 5 12.0 5-3/4
12 6 TALENTI Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 19.0 6-1/4
13 9 MING WARRIOR TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris 3 175.0 9-1/4
14 3 SMART FOLKS XB N Callan · C W Chang 2 180.0 9-1/4
0 ABLE REIGN B Shinn · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEMPEST EXPRESS2. THE HULK+1.25L3. MY SUGAR+2L4. ROMANTIC COMBO+2.5L5. KA YING EXCELLENT+2.75L6. TELECOM CHEETAH+3L7. VITRALITE+3.5L8. STAR OF YUEN LONG+4.75L9. RIGHT CHOICE+4.75L10. SPARKY TRAIL+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KA YING EXCELLENT (31.1%) finished 5th — the winner TEMPEST EXPRESS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 KA YING EXCELLENT 31.1% 3.21 5
2 11 MY SUGAR 28.0% 3.57 3
3 14 ROMANTIC COMBO 8.1% 12.41 4
4 10 THE HULK 7.1% 14.03 2
5 2 STAR OF YUEN LONG 6.1% 16.48 8
6 6 TALENTI 4.9% 20.44 12
7 7 RIGHT CHOICE 3.7% 27.00 9
8 13 TEMPEST EXPRESS 3.3% 30.35 1
9 5 SPARKY TRAIL 2.6% 38.67 10
10 1 VITRALITE 1.9% 53.97 7
11 4 AMARA WIN 1.7% 59.99 11
12 9 MING WARRIOR 0.6% 171.19 13
13 12 TELECOM CHEETAH 0.5% 182.01 6
14 3 SMART FOLKS 0.5% 198.30 14
KA YING EXCELLENTMY SUGARROMANTIC COMBOTHE HULKSTAR OF YUEN LONGTALENTIRIGHT CHOICETEMPEST EXPRESS — wonSPARKY TRAILVITRALITEAMARA WINMING WARRIORTELECOM CHEETAHSMART FOLKS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 108

PLACE

10 24

11 15

13 35.5

QUINELLA

10,13 735

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 55

10,13 190

11,13 76.5

FORECAST

13,10 1,543

TIERCE

13,10,11 6,500

TRIO

10,11,13 700

FIRST 4

10,11,13,14 677

QUARTET

13,10,11,14 23,837

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31.5

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,13/10,11,13 21,952

9TH DOUBLE

4/10 111.5

4/13 865.5

SIX UP

1,6/5,11/1,3/7,9/4,5/10,13 186,679

7 [A Hamelin]

TREBLE

7/4/10 1,712

7/4/13 15,635