Happy Valley · 2021-01-27
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TIGERLAD B/TT 1.10.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 4 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | GREAT SON V/TT C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | VITAL SPRING CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | GREAT HARVEST A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | FANTASTIC FABIO Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | ALLOY STAR B M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 1 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | WELL DRAGON B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 2 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SHOW MISSION B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 6 | 41.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | WHO'S HORSE B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | TIGER GLARE H/TT- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 12 | 116.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | NOBLE MAN B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | TINKER BELLE B C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 10 | 109.0 | 7 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-27 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TIGERLAD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with GREAT SON second and VITAL SPRING third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TIGERLAD | 40.7% | 2.46 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | VITAL SPRING | 10.8% | 9.26 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | GREAT SON | 9.8% | 10.25 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | WELL DRAGON | 9.1% | 10.95 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | GREAT HARVEST | 8.6% | 11.63 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | NOBLE MAN | 6.6% | 15.22 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 4.6% | 21.61 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | WHO'S HORSE | 4.3% | 23.52 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | SHOW MISSION | 1.7% | 60.22 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | TINKER BELLE | 1.5% | 65.74 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | ALLOY STAR | 1.3% | 74.12 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | TIGER GLARE | 1.0% | 98.46 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 36.5
PLACE
3 17.5
5 16.5
11 16
QUINELLA
3,11 114.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 39
3,11 42
5,11 38
FORECAST
11,3 201
TIERCE
11,3,5 505
TRIO
3,5,11 109
FIRST 4
3,5,8,11 130
QUARTET
11,3,5,8 2,018
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —