Happy Valley · 2021-01-27
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-27 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WE THE SOUTH, ridden by C Soumillon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with FLYING GENIUS second and SAUL'S SPECIAL third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB 0.56.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Soumillon · F C Lor | C Soumillon | F C Lor | 3 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | FLYING GENIUS B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 7 | 7.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | SAUL'S SPECIAL H-/B T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 10 | 37.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | KURPANY TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 11 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | KAI XIN DRAGON K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 8.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | HARMONY AND RICH C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | FABULOUS EIGHT TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 6 | 5.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | WILD WEST WING A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 9 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | MAN STAR B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 4 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | NORDIC WELLSTAR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 41.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | YOUNG PASSION B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 12 | 150.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | ORION PATCH PC-/B2/TT- M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 1 | 80.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 22.2% | 4.51 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | KURPANY | 19.7% | 5.07 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | WE THE SOUTH | 14.2% | 7.03 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | FLYING GENIUS | 12.0% | 8.35 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | HARMONY AND RICH | 8.8% | 11.30 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | KAI XIN DRAGON | 7.9% | 12.59 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | MAN STAR | 4.5% | 22.10 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | WILD WEST WING | 3.4% | 29.01 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 3.4% | 29.44 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | ORION PATCH | 1.5% | 64.77 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | YOUNG PASSION | 1.4% | 72.34 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | NORDIC WELLSTAR | 0.8% | 125.96 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 36
PLACE
2 97.5
3 26.5
4 14.5
QUINELLA
3,4 121.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 470.5
2,4 278
3,4 51
FORECAST
4,3 310
TIERCE
4,3,2 5,059
TRIO
2,3,4 1,587
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 1,609
QUARTET
4,3,2,6 42,730
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,11/2,3,4 413,671
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
8/3 97
8/4 485.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5>3,10/4,8,11/Any Combination 69,293