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Happy Valley · 2021-01-27

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE ANOMALY, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with JAZZ STEED second and COURAGEOUS DRAGON third. The 2.8 favourite MY ECSTATIC finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 THE ANOMALY 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 64.0 SH
2 2 JAZZ STEED B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 3 3.8 SH
3 11 COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 6.3 N
4 1 SPRINT FORWARD CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 10 20.0 1-1/4
5 9 WON BALL TT M F Poon · D J Hall 7 25.0 1-1/4
6 7 MY ECSTATIC TT J Moreira · F C Lor 6 2.8 2
7 3 CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 10.0 2-1/4
8 6 MOONLUCK C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 91.0 2-1/2
9 4 HERO TIME B N Callan · R Gibson 1 7.6 2-3/4
10 10 GOOD LUCK MONEY XB- K C Leung · C H Yip 9 70.0 3
11 5 VERY SWEET ORANGE V T Piccone · Y S Tsui 8 15.0 3-1/2
12 12 LUCKY RUBY B/TT1 A Badel · K L Man 5 74.0 3-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE ANOMALY2. JAZZ STEED+0.1L3. COURAGEOUS DRAGON+0.05L4. SPRINT FORWARD+1.25L5. WON BALL+1.25L6. MY ECSTATIC+2L7. CALIFORNIA LEVEE+2.25L8. MOONLUCK+2.5L9. HERO TIME+2.75L10. GOOD LUCK MONEY+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MY ECSTATIC (34.9%) finished 6th — the winner THE ANOMALY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MY ECSTATIC 34.9% 2.86 6
2 2 JAZZ STEED 15.9% 6.29 2
3 11 COURAGEOUS DRAGON 9.0% 11.12 3
4 3 CALIFORNIA LEVEE 8.2% 12.25 7
5 9 WON BALL 7.3% 13.78 5
6 1 SPRINT FORWARD 5.6% 17.86 4
7 4 HERO TIME 5.3% 18.91 9
8 6 MOONLUCK 5.0% 20.03 8
9 5 VERY SWEET ORANGE 4.7% 21.18 11
10 8 THE ANOMALY 2.7% 36.97 1
11 12 LUCKY RUBY 0.8% 124.22 12
12 10 GOOD LUCK MONEY 0.7% 150.93 10
MY ECSTATICJAZZ STEEDCOURAGEOUS DRAGONCALIFORNIA LEVEEWON BALLSPRINT FORWARDHERO TIMEMOONLUCKVERY SWEET ORANGETHE ANOMALY — wonLUCKY RUBYGOOD LUCK MONEY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 644

PLACE

2 15.5

8 91.5

11 16.5

QUINELLA

2,8 1,130.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 318.5

2,11 37

8,11 476.5

FORECAST

8,2 2,086

TIERCE

8,2,11 14,581

TRIO

2,8,11 2,000

FIRST 4

1,2,8,11 4,120

QUARTET

8,2,11,1 139,223

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 18.5

2/8 3,141

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 48