Happy Valley · 2021-01-27
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-27 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SAVAQUIN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by HD, with ROYAL BOMB second and HELENE WISDOM STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite ROYAL BOMB finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly 1.40.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 4.5 | HD |
| 2 | 4 | ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly C Soumillon · C Fownes | C Soumillon | C Fownes | 2 | 3.8 | HD |
| 3 | 5 | HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 10 | 6.3 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 8.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly XB C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 9 | 34.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | WORLD FAMOUS B/XB K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 1 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 3 | 40.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | NOBLE STEED B N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 7 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | FARSHAD CP C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 6 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | SURREALISM Led early B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 5 | 17.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | KASI FARASI C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 8 | 56.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | CABLE SPEED H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 12 | 183.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SAVAQUIN | 23.9% | 4.19 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | ROYAL BOMB | 15.0% | 6.66 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 14.8% | 6.74 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | SURREALISM | 9.2% | 10.81 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | NOBLE STEED | 8.0% | 12.54 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | FARSHAD | 5.9% | 17.00 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | BEAUTY SPARK | 5.6% | 17.81 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 5.1% | 19.46 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | KASI FARASI | 4.9% | 20.37 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | KING'S CAPITAL | 3.7% | 26.96 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | WORLD FAMOUS | 3.3% | 30.32 | 6 |
| 12 | 11 | CABLE SPEED | 0.5% | 199.00 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 45.5
PLACE
4 18
5 24.5
8 18
QUINELLA
4,8 107.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 57
4,8 41
5,8 50.5
FORECAST
8,4 233
TIERCE
8,4,5 968
TRIO
4,5,8 225
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 230
QUARTET
8,4,5,1 5,078
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 32.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,9,11/4,5,8 23,409
8TH DOUBLE
9/4 40.5
9/8 373.5
SIX UP
4/2/8/4/9/8 698,756
4,9/2,3,10/4,8/3,4/9,11/4,8 949
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
4/9/4 184
4/9/8 1,352