Happy Valley · 2021-02-10
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with TRAVEL DATUK second and FLAMING PASSION third. The 3.6 favourite TRAVEL DATUK finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | JOYFUL WIN B 0.57.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 4 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | TRAVEL DATUK B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | FLAMING PASSION TT1 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 8.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | GOODMANSHIP C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | TOM'S STYLE XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 6.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | FARM BUMPER B1 C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 8 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | LUCKY ONE T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 2 | 23.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | NEXTMODEL TT K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 9 | 6.9 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | LOTUS FAVORITES Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 43.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | CAPSULE KING TT1 H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 7 | 79.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | STAR SUPERIOR H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 10 | 34.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | U W BROTHER J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 11 | 5.1 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LOTUS FAVORITES | 22.5% | 4.45 | 9 |
| 2 | 10 | U W BROTHER | 15.5% | 6.47 | 12 |
| 3 | 11 | TRAVEL DATUK | 11.2% | 8.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | TOM'S STYLE | 10.1% | 9.87 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | JOYFUL WIN | 8.4% | 11.95 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | GOODMANSHIP | 5.7% | 17.67 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | NEXTMODEL | 5.7% | 17.69 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.6% | 17.90 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | FARM BUMPER | 5.3% | 18.72 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | FLAMING PASSION | 5.3% | 18.74 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | LUCKY ONE | 3.0% | 33.75 | 7 |
| 12 | 3 | CAPSULE KING | 1.8% | 56.55 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 120
PLACE
5 30
9 35.5
11 15
QUINELLA
9,11 225.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 150
5,11 76
9,11 79.5
FORECAST
9,11 470
TIERCE
9,11,5 4,604
TRIO
5,9,11 668
FIRST 4
5,6,9,11 2,481
QUARTET
9,11,5,6 72,426
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 31.5
A1 —
A2 —