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Happy Valley · 2021-02-10

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 0.57.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 JOYFUL WIN B 0.57.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 12.0 1-1/4
2 0 TRAVEL DATUK B A Badel · R Gibson 3 3.6 1-1/4
3 0 FLAMING PASSION TT1 K Teetan · F C Lor 1 8.5 1-1/2
4 0 GOODMANSHIP C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 18.0 4-1/4
5 0 TOM'S STYLE XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 6.0 4-1/2
6 0 FARM BUMPER B1 C Schofield · K L Man 8 14.0 4-3/4
7 0 LUCKY ONE T Piccone · W Y So 2 23.0 5-3/4
8 0 NEXTMODEL TT K H Chan · T P Yung 9 6.9 6
9 0 LOTUS FAVORITES Z Purton · D J Hall 12 43.0 7
10 0 CAPSULE KING TT1 H N Wong · C H Yip 7 79.0 8-1/2
11 0 STAR SUPERIOR H W Lai · C W Chang 10 34.0 9-1/2
12 0 U W BROTHER J Moreira · Y S Tsui 11 5.1 9-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with TRAVEL DATUK second and FLAMING PASSION third. The 3.6 favourite TRAVEL DATUK finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOYFUL WIN—2. TRAVEL DATUK+1.25L3. FLAMING PASSION+1.5L4. GOODMANSHIP+4.25L5. TOM'S STYLE+4.5L6. FARM BUMPER+4.75L7. LUCKY ONE+5.75L8. NEXTMODEL+6L9. LOTUS FAVORITES+7L10. CAPSULE KING+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LOTUS FAVORITES (22.5%) finished 9th — the winner JOYFUL WIN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LOTUS FAVORITES 22.5% 4.45 9
2 0 U W BROTHER 15.5% 6.47 12
3 0 TRAVEL DATUK 11.2% 8.90 2
4 0 TOM'S STYLE 10.1% 9.87 5
5 0 JOYFUL WIN 8.4% 11.95 1
6 0 GOODMANSHIP 5.7% 17.67 4
7 0 NEXTMODEL 5.7% 17.69 8
8 0 STAR SUPERIOR 5.6% 17.90 11
9 0 FARM BUMPER 5.3% 18.72 6
10 0 FLAMING PASSION 5.3% 18.74 3
11 0 LUCKY ONE 3.0% 33.75 7
12 0 CAPSULE KING 1.8% 56.55 10
LOTUS FAVORITESU W BROTHERTRAVEL DATUKTOM'S STYLEJOYFUL WIN — wonGOODMANSHIPNEXTMODELSTAR SUPERIORFARM BUMPERFLAMING PASSIONLUCKY ONECAPSULE KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 120

PLACE

5 30

9 35.5

11 15

QUINELLA

9,11 225.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 150

5,11 76

9,11 79.5

FORECAST

9,11 470

TIERCE

9,11,5 4,604

TRIO

5,9,11 668

FIRST 4

5,6,9,11 2,481

QUARTET

9,11,5,6 72,426

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 31.5