Happy Valley · 2021-02-10
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SPONTANEOUS, ridden by V Borges and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with ROMANTIC TROVE second and STOCK LEGEND third. The 2.4 favourite STOCK LEGEND finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SPONTANEOUS 1.10.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 6.7 | N |
| 2 | 8 | ROMANTIC TROVE TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 6 | 7.2 | N |
| 3 | 1 | STOCK LEGEND H/TT J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 12 | 2.4 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | TELECOM ROCKET B C Soumillon · Y S Tsui | C Soumillon | Y S Tsui | 11 | 9.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | UNIVERSAL CROWN XB/CP1/TT- M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 3 | 63.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | CHEEKY PRAWN K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | WHISKEY NEAT B/H/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 9.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | ATHENA H-/CP1/TT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 1 | 42.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SILVERY WARRIOR TT N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 4 | 29.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | INNO LEGEND CP A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 18.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | APEX TOP B C Y Ho · A T Millard | C Y Ho | A T Millard | 7 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | STOCK LEGEND | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | WHISKEY NEAT | 17.1% | 5.84 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | CHEEKY PRAWN | 12.5% | 8.00 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE | 7.1% | 14.13 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | APEX TOP | 6.5% | 15.33 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | INNO LEGEND | 6.5% | 15.36 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | ROMANTIC TROVE | 6.2% | 16.19 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | TELECOM ROCKET | 5.2% | 19.36 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | SILVERY WARRIOR | 4.9% | 20.31 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | ATHENA | 4.5% | 22.25 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | SPONTANEOUS | 3.8% | 26.09 | 1 |
| 12 | 12 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 2.9% | 34.61 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 67
PLACE
1 14.5
8 22
10 22
QUINELLA
8,10 203
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 51
1,10 48.5
8,10 75
FORECAST
10,8 493
TIERCE
10,8,1 1,552
TRIO
1,8,10 198
FIRST 4
1,3,8,10 400
QUARTET
10,8,1,3 12,421
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,6/1,8,10 11,035
3 PICK 1
A2 25.5
A1 —
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
5/8 60.5
5/10 340.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,7,10/3,5,6/1,8,10 153,390
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,7,10/3,5,6/Any Combination 1,576