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Happy Valley · 2021-02-10

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 4 4.3 1-1/4
2 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B-/H/PC1/TT C Schofield · R Gibson 5 13.0 1-1/4
3 0 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B J Moreira · Y S Tsui 6 4.2 1-1/2
4 0 EVER LAUGH B/TT A Badel · K L Man 3 7.2 2
5 0 HAPPY WARRIOR Led early H/V1 N Callan · C Fownes 8 34.0 3
6 0 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · J Size 2 23.0 3
7 0 VILLA FIONN B Z Purton · P F Yiu 1 6.1 3-1/4
8 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 7.1 4
9 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS TT C Soumillon · W Y So 7 7.7 4-1/4
10 0 STAR OF RED B-/H-/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 10 223.0 6-1/4
11 0 HAPPY FORTUNE P/TT H T Mo · L Ho 9 112.0 6-1/2
12 0 TOP SCORE B/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 12 69.0 8-3/4
— 0 GAMEPLAYER STAR C L Chau · D J Whyte — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT CROWN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with RIGHT HONOURABLE second and GLORIOUS LOVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite GLORIOUS LOVER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT CROWN—2. RIGHT HONOURABLE+1.25L3. GLORIOUS LOVER+1.5L4. EVER LAUGH+2L5. HAPPY WARRIOR+3L6. DIAMOND STAR+3L7. VILLA FIONN+3.25L8. CALIFORNIA LEGEND+4L9. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+4.25L10. STAR OF RED+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick VILLA FIONN (22.2%) finished 7th — the winner GALLANT CROWN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VILLA FIONN 22.2% 4.50 7
2 0 GLORIOUS LOVER 18.8% 5.31 3
3 0 GALLANT CROWN 13.9% 7.18 1
4 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 12.0% 8.35 8
5 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 9.5% 10.49 9
6 0 EVER LAUGH 8.0% 12.46 4
7 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 6.5% 15.47 2
8 0 DIAMOND STAR 3.9% 25.77 6
9 0 TOP SCORE 1.7% 57.50 12
10 0 HAPPY WARRIOR 1.7% 60.15 5
11 0 HAPPY FORTUNE 1.0% 95.62 11
12 0 STAR OF RED 0.7% 141.41 10
VILLA FIONNGLORIOUS LOVERGALLANT CROWN — wonCALIFORNIA LEGENDZHAN JIANG ROCKSEVER LAUGHRIGHT HONOURABLEDIAMOND STARTOP SCOREHAPPY WARRIORHAPPY FORTUNESTAR OF RED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 43

PLACE

3 18

5 16.5

6 38

QUINELLA

5,6 318.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 39

3,6 123

5,6 110

FORECAST

5,6 601

TIERCE

5,6,3 3,186

TRIO

3,5,6 503

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 466

QUARTET

5,6,3,4 12,241

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 20

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

7/5 173.5

7/6 122