Happy Valley · 2021-02-10
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KURPANY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with FLYING GENIUS second and SAUL'S SPECIAL third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KURPANY TT 0.57.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 1.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | FLYING GENIUS B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 6 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 4 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | STRIVE FOR GLORY TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | NORDIC WELLSTAR K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 11 | 92.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | WILD WEST WING A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 10 | 8.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 7 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPER POWER MAN M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 2 | 23.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | GENTLE BREEZE B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 9 | 62.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | ORION PATCH B M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 8 | 243.0 | 13 |
| — | 6 | MOST WELCOME B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KURPANY | 34.1% | 2.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | FLYING GENIUS | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | SUPER POWER MAN | 7.8% | 12.75 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 6.6% | 15.22 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 4.4% | 22.54 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 4.2% | 23.72 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 4.1% | 24.56 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | WILD WEST WING | 3.9% | 25.59 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | GENTLE BREEZE | 2.1% | 48.24 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | NORDIC WELLSTAR | 0.9% | 106.92 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | ORION PATCH | 0.6% | 173.22 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 17
PLACE
1 14.5
3 26
4 11.5
QUINELLA
1,4 33
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 60
1,4 17
3,4 36.5
FORECAST
4,1 48
TIERCE
4,1,3 182
TRIO
1,3,4 66
FIRST 4
1,3,4,11 177
QUARTET
4,1,3,11 1,160
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17
7TH DOUBLE
10/1 42.5
10/4 130