Happy Valley · 2021-02-10

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 8 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with WEALTHY DELIGHT second and HARMONY SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite WEALTHY DELIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.90

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.39.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	5	122 lb	3.5	1-3/4
2	7	WEALTHY DELIGHT Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	8	122 lb	2.9	1-3/4
3	4	HARMONY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	1	117 lb	11.0	2
4	2	ROYAL BOMB Led early C Soumillon · C Fownes	C Soumillon	C Fownes	3	132 lb	3.2	4-3/4
5	5	MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	7	122 lb	12.0	4-3/4
6	3	HEAVENLY THOUGHT B C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	4	129 lb	27.0	10
7	1	PARTERRE B1 C Schofield · A T Millard	C Schofield	A T Millard	2	133 lb	20.0	10-1/2
8	8	BLAZING BEAT CP-/B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	6	116 lb	37.0	12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick ROYAL BOMB (31.8%) finished 4th — the winner SUNNY STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	ROYAL BOMB	31.8%	3.14	4	3.2
2	7	WEALTHY DELIGHT	24.5%	4.08	2	2.9
3	6	SUNNY STAR	20.5%	4.87	1	3.5
4	4	HARMONY SPIRIT	7.8%	12.78	3	11.0
5	5	MURRAY'S PARTNERS	6.1%	16.28	5	12.0
6	1	PARTERRE	3.7%	26.73	7	20.0
7	3	HEAVENLY THOUGHT	3.6%	27.53	6	27.0
8	8	BLAZING BEAT	1.8%	55.43	8	37.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 35.5

PLACE

4 27

6 12

7 13.5

QUINELLA

6,7 60

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 53.5

4,7 60.5

6,7 22

FORECAST

6,7 130

TIERCE

6,7,4 723

TRIO

4,6,7 181

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 67

QUARTET

6,7,4,2 1,951

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 22

3RD DOUBLE

8/6 421.5

8/7 63

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