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Happy Valley · 2021-02-10

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.39.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui 5 3.5 1-3/4
2 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 8 2.9 1-3/4
3 0 HARMONY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 11.0 2
4 0 ROYAL BOMB Led early C Soumillon · C Fownes 3 3.2 4-3/4
5 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip 7 12.0 4-3/4
6 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 27.0 10
7 0 PARTERRE B1 C Schofield · A T Millard 2 20.0 10-1/2
8 0 BLAZING BEAT CP-/B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 37.0 12-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with WEALTHY DELIGHT second and HARMONY SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite WEALTHY DELIGHT finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY STAR—2. WEALTHY DELIGHT+1.75L3. HARMONY SPIRIT+2L4. ROYAL BOMB+4.75L5. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+4.75L6. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+10L7. PARTERRE+10.5L8. BLAZING BEAT+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ROYAL BOMB (31.8%) finished 4th — the winner SUNNY STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ROYAL BOMB 31.8% 3.14 4
2 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT 24.5% 4.08 2
3 0 SUNNY STAR 20.5% 4.87 1
4 0 HARMONY SPIRIT 7.8% 12.78 3
5 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 6.1% 16.28 5
6 0 PARTERRE 3.7% 26.73 7
7 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 3.6% 27.53 6
8 0 BLAZING BEAT 1.8% 55.43 8
ROYAL BOMBWEALTHY DELIGHTSUNNY STAR — wonHARMONY SPIRITMURRAY'S PARTNERSPARTERREHEAVENLY THOUGHTBLAZING BEAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 35.5

PLACE

4 27

6 12

7 13.5

QUINELLA

6,7 60

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 53.5

4,7 60.5

6,7 22

FORECAST

6,7 130

TIERCE

6,7,4 723

TRIO

4,6,7 181

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 67

QUARTET

6,7,4,2 1,951

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 22

3RD DOUBLE

8/6 421.5

8/7 63