Happy Valley · 2021-02-10
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DAILY BEAUTY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with JOLLY GOOD HEART second and HAPPILY FRIENDS third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DAILY BEAUTY TT 1.10.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 2.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | JOLLY GOOD HEART Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 9 | 6.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPILY FRIENDS H1 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 6 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SMILING FACE B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 3 | 8.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | STREET SCREAM C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 4 | 8.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | SPRINT FORWARD CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | ZACIAN K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 10 | 66.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | CHIKORITA XB N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 11 | 37.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | SPLENDID TIMING B- V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 5 | 70.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SKY CHAMPION H- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 77.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | FOCUS K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | FOREVER T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 12 | 163.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DAILY BEAUTY | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 11.5% | 8.71 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | SPRINT FORWARD | 11.0% | 9.12 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 9.1% | 11.03 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | STREET SCREAM | 7.5% | 13.32 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | SMILING FACE | 6.6% | 15.05 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | CHIKORITA | 2.7% | 36.36 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | ZACIAN | 2.5% | 39.70 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | SPLENDID TIMING | 2.2% | 46.12 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | FOREVER | 2.1% | 47.82 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | FOCUS | 1.7% | 57.73 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | SKY CHAMPION | 1.1% | 94.28 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 28.5
PLACE
2 18.5
7 13.5
10 29.5
QUINELLA
2,7 86.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 37
2,10 95
7,10 50.5
FORECAST
7,2 177
TIERCE
7,2,10 824
TRIO
2,7,10 215
FIRST 4
2,7,10,11 299
QUARTET
7,2,10,11 4,757
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,7/2,7,10 5,342
3 PICK 1
A1 17
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
6/2 43.5
6/7 143