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Happy Valley · 2021-02-10

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.52
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PRESIDENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · C S Shum 2 6.3 SH
2 0 TREASURE CHEST Led early B/XB B Shinn · P F Yiu 5 4.5 SH
3 0 GALAXY RACER Closed strongly B2/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 8 14.0 HD
4 0 HUMBLE STEED Closed strongly C Schofield · T P Yung 11 65.0 1-1/2
5 0 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor 6 7.2 1-3/4
6 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly V1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 36.0 2-3/4
7 0 GLENEALY PALS B-/H-/XB/TT C Soumillon · C H Yip 3 28.0 3-1/4
8 0 BABY STORM H/P/TT J Moreira · L Ho 7 3.6 4
9 0 MANY GAINS N Callan · K L Man 4 42.0 4
10 0 INDIGENOUS STAR Z Purton · C W Chang 1 5.5 4
11 0 LUCKY TURBO B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 9 44.0 6
12 0 WONDERFUL TIGER H/XB/TT K C Leung · W Y So 10 23.0 19

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-10 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PRESIDENT STAR, ridden by V Borges and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with TREASURE CHEST second and GALAXY RACER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BABY STORM finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRESIDENT STAR—2. TREASURE CHEST+0.1L3. GALAXY RACER+0.2L4. HUMBLE STEED+1.5L5. VIRTUS STAR+1.75L6. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+2.75L7. GLENEALY PALS+3.25L8. BABY STORM+4L9. MANY GAINS+4L10. INDIGENOUS STAR+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BABY STORM (30.2%) finished 8th — the winner PRESIDENT STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BABY STORM 30.2% 3.31 8
2 0 TREASURE CHEST 21.1% 4.74 2
3 0 INDIGENOUS STAR 12.9% 7.73 10
4 0 VIRTUS STAR 7.9% 12.72 5
5 0 PRESIDENT STAR 5.8% 17.32 1
6 0 WONDERFUL TIGER 4.5% 22.24 12
7 0 MANY GAINS 3.9% 25.96 9
8 0 LUCKY TURBO 3.8% 26.61 11
9 0 GALAXY RACER 3.4% 29.37 3
10 0 GLENEALY PALS 2.5% 39.66 7
11 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 2.5% 40.54 6
12 0 HUMBLE STEED 1.7% 59.80 4
BABY STORMTREASURE CHESTINDIGENOUS STARVIRTUS STARPRESIDENT STAR — wonWONDERFUL TIGERMANY GAINSLUCKY TURBOGALAXY RACERGLENEALY PALSENJOYABLE SUCCESSHUMBLE STEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 63

PLACE

2 15.5

10 45

11 18

QUINELLA

2,11 125.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 123.5

2,11 44

10,11 155

FORECAST

11,2 381

TIERCE

11,2,10 3,037

TRIO

2,10,11 875

FIRST 4

2,5,10,11 6,981

QUARTET

11,2,10,5 80,970

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/2 101

9/11 748

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 19