Sha Tin · 2021-02-21
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RESOLUTE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/2, with HAPPY TANGO second and THOU SHALL SING third. The 1.5 favourite UNTOLD RICHES finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RESOLUTE B 1.08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 1 | 5.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | HAPPY TANGO B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 7 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 8.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | LUMEN BABA XB/H1/P1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 120.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SEA MONARCH SR-/V1/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 8 | 104.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | AMAZING KNIGHT B-/P1 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 115.0 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | UNTOLD RICHES Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 3 | 1.5 | 9-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | FA FA M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 47.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | H Z TOURBILLON TT1 C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 11 | 54.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 9 | 23.0 | 14 |
| 11 | 12 | HEY PAL B/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 32.0 | 24-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | HARD PROMISE TT N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 2 | 35.0 | 26-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | UNTOLD RICHES | 35.2% | 2.84 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | RESOLUTE | 16.1% | 6.22 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | HAPPY TANGO | 13.7% | 7.28 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | HARD PROMISE | 7.3% | 13.75 | 12 |
| 5 | 2 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 5.9% | 16.82 | 10 |
| 6 | 5 | FA FA | 5.6% | 17.72 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | THOU SHALL SING | 5.5% | 18.16 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | H Z TOURBILLON | 3.4% | 29.74 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | LUMEN BABA | 2.6% | 37.89 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | HEY PAL | 2.1% | 48.70 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | AMAZING KNIGHT | 1.5% | 67.30 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | SEA MONARCH | 1.1% | 94.60 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 54.5
PLACE
1 18.5
3 14.5
11 23.5
QUINELLA
3,11 158.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 40.5
1,11 70
3,11 46
FORECAST
3,11 276
TIERCE
3,11,1 953
TRIO
1,3,11 201
FIRST 4
1,3,4,11 2,082
QUARTET
3,11,1,4 28,358
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 29.5
A3 —
A1 —