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Sha Tin · 2021-02-21

Race 3

Group 1 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-21 was Group 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WAIKUKU, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with SOUTHERN LEGEND second and MIGHTY GIANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.20.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WAIKUKU Closed strongly 1.20.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 6 2.1 1-1/4
2 1 SOUTHERN LEGEND Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes 2 3.9 1-1/4
3 7 MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B N Callan · P F Yiu 3 13.0 1-3/4
4 4 MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly K C Leung · K W Lui 5 13.0 1-3/4
5 3 KA YING STAR V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 8 5.8 2
6 9 NOT USUAL TALENT TT T Piccone · T P Yung 4 23.0 3-3/4
7 5 WISHFUL THINKER C Schofield · C H Yip 1 57.0 4
8 8 BUDDIES Led early H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 47.0 4
9 6 CHAMPION'S WAY TT A Badel · J Size 9 12.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WAIKUKU2. SOUTHERN LEGEND+1.25L3. MIGHTY GIANT+1.75L4. MORE THAN THIS+1.75L5. KA YING STAR+2L6. NOT USUAL TALENT+3.75L7. WISHFUL THINKER+4L8. BUDDIES+4L9. CHAMPION'S WAY+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WAIKUKU (28.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WAIKUKU 28.5% 3.51 1
2 1 SOUTHERN LEGEND 18.8% 5.32 2
3 3 KA YING STAR 17.4% 5.75 5
4 6 CHAMPION'S WAY 6.6% 15.21 9
5 7 MIGHTY GIANT 6.6% 15.24 3
6 8 BUDDIES 6.2% 16.21 8
7 5 WISHFUL THINKER 5.5% 18.30 7
8 4 MORE THAN THIS 5.3% 18.85 4
9 9 NOT USUAL TALENT 5.3% 18.90 6
WAIKUKU — wonSOUTHERN LEGENDKA YING STARCHAMPION'S WAYMIGHTY GIANTBUDDIESWISHFUL THINKERMORE THAN THISNOT USUAL TALENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 21.5

PLACE

1 14

2 12

7 24.5

QUINELLA

1,2 43

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 18.5

1,7 53

2,7 47.5

FORECAST

2,1 62

TIERCE

2,1,7 384

TRIO

1,2,7 136

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 228

QUARTET

2,1,7,4 1,997

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/1 14.5

8/2 37.5

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A3

A2

WINNING TRAINER

B2

B3

B1 18