Sha Tin · 2021-02-21
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-21 was Group 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WAIKUKU, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with SOUTHERN LEGEND second and MIGHTY GIANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WAIKUKU Closed strongly 1.20.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 2.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | SOUTHERN LEGEND Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 2 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 5 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | KA YING STAR V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 5.8 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | NOT USUAL TALENT TT T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 4 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | WISHFUL THINKER C Schofield · C H Yip | C Schofield | C H Yip | 1 | 57.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | BUDDIES Led early H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 47.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | CHAMPION'S WAY TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 9 | 12.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WAIKUKU | 28.5% | 3.51 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 18.8% | 5.32 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | KA YING STAR | 17.4% | 5.75 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 6.6% | 15.21 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | MIGHTY GIANT | 6.6% | 15.24 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | BUDDIES | 6.2% | 16.21 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | WISHFUL THINKER | 5.5% | 18.30 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | MORE THAN THIS | 5.3% | 18.85 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 5.3% | 18.90 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 21.5
PLACE
1 14
2 12
7 24.5
QUINELLA
1,2 43
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 18.5
1,7 53
2,7 47.5
FORECAST
2,1 62
TIERCE
2,1,7 384
TRIO
1,2,7 136
FIRST 4
1,2,4,7 228
QUARTET
2,1,7,4 1,997
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/1 14.5
8/2 37.5
3 PICK 1
A1 13.5
A3 —
A2 —
WINNING TRAINER
B2 —
B3 —
B1 18