Sha Tin · 2021-02-21
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-21 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SILVER FIG, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with WE THE SOUTH second and RED DESERT third. The 3.2 favourite CZARSON finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SILVER FIG B/TT 1.08.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 9 | 21.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor | V Borges | F C Lor | 7 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | RED DESERT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 7.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 41.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | CZARSON CP/TT Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 8 | 3.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | ENCORE BOY B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 3 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 11 | 65.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | HONG KONG BET TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 12 | 39.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SUNNY BOY B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 5 | 22.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | UGLY WARRIOR J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.4 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | YOUNG LEGEND H/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 1 | 124.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WILL POWER | 19.9% | 5.02 | 6 |
| 2 | 11 | WE THE SOUTH | 11.4% | 8.81 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | UGLY WARRIOR | 10.0% | 10.01 | 11 |
| 4 | 3 | ENCORE BOY | 9.0% | 11.07 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | CZARSON | 8.4% | 11.96 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | SUNNY BOY | 7.4% | 13.44 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | HONG KONG BET | 7.2% | 13.82 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 6.9% | 14.59 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | RED DESERT | 6.7% | 14.93 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | SILVER FIG | 4.7% | 21.19 | 1 |
| 11 | 12 | YOUNG LEGEND | 4.7% | 21.49 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | ELITE PATCH | 3.7% | 26.76 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 218.5
PLACE
2 21.5
7 51.5
11 39
QUINELLA
7,11 1,330
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 179
2,11 149
7,11 315
FORECAST
7,11 2,347
TIERCE
7,11,2 18,270
TRIO
2,7,11 2,320
FIRST 4
2,6,7,11 10,715
QUARTET
7,11,2,6 396,298
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 41
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
1/7 227.5
1/11 55