Sha Tin · 2021-02-21

Race 7

Group 1 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-21 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN SIXTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with FURORE second and EXULTANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.00.25

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly 2.00.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	4	126 lb	1.3	SH
2	3	FURORE Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	3	126 lb	7.0	SH
3	2	EXULTANT XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	2	126 lb	5.4	1-1/4
4	7	GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	7	126 lb	18.0	2-1/4
5	6	TIME WARP Led early TT K C Leung · A S Cruz	K C Leung	A S Cruz	1	126 lb	37.0	9-1/4
6	4	COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H/TT B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	5	126 lb	43.0	9-1/2
7	5	PLAYA DEL PUENTE SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	6	126 lb	30.0	10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick GOLDEN SIXTY (34.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	GOLDEN SIXTY	34.7%	2.88	1	1.3
2	3	FURORE	28.7%	3.48	2	7.0
3	2	EXULTANT	25.9%	3.86	3	5.4
4	7	GLORIOUS DRAGON	5.4%	18.56	4	18.0
5	4	COLUMBUS COUNTY	2.0%	51.06	6	43.0
6	6	TIME WARP	1.8%	54.99	5	37.0
7	5	PLAYA DEL PUENTE	1.5%	67.70	7	30.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 13.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 11.5

3 13.5

QUINELLA

1,3 35.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 13

1,3 15.5

2,3 20

FORECAST

1,3 47

TIERCE

1,3,2 73

TRIO

1,2,3 21

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 29

QUARTET

1,3,2,7 198

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,9/1,2,3 1,442

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 13.5

6TH DOUBLE

9/1 159

9/3 131.5

WINNING TRAINER

B2 —

B3 —

B1 12.5

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