Happy Valley · 2021-03-03
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. NUNCHUKS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with SAVVY KINGMAN second and LADY FIRST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT 1.40.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 2.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | SAVVY KINGMAN Closed strongly B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 10 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 7 | 3.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | OWNERS' STAR B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 5.5 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | BLAZING BEAT Led early B K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 9 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | RUN RUN GOOD B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 56.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | SMILING FACE Closed strongly B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 4 | 7.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | GOLD 'N' BOLD V V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 11 | 24.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | LUCKY MISSILE CP2 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | THE SUBMARINE B R Maia · Y S Tsui | R Maia | Y S Tsui | 12 | 163.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | AEROSONIC P/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 5 | 42.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | COSMO CLASSIC CP1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 6 | 66.0 | 22 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | OWNERS' STAR | 24.5% | 4.08 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | NUNCHUKS | 24.3% | 4.12 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | SMILING FACE | 11.5% | 8.66 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | LADY FIRST | 10.1% | 9.88 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | GOLD 'N' BOLD | 6.8% | 14.66 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | BLAZING BEAT | 6.6% | 15.13 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 4.8% | 20.94 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | AEROSONIC | 3.8% | 26.39 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | COSMO CLASSIC | 2.7% | 36.64 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | LUCKY MISSILE | 2.7% | 36.78 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | RUN RUN GOOD | 1.4% | 69.42 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | THE SUBMARINE | 0.7% | 153.83 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 27
PLACE
2 14.5
7 13.5
9 40.5
QUINELLA
7,9 172
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 23.5
2,9 89
7,9 68.5
FORECAST
7,9 249
TIERCE
7,9,2 928
TRIO
2,7,9 225
FIRST 4
2,3,7,9 174
QUARTET
7,9,2,3 3,405
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
2/7 343
2/9 325
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 18
A2 —