Happy Valley · 2021-03-03
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WIND N GRASS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with JAZZ STEED second and EXCELLENT CHARIOT third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WIND N GRASS TT 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | JAZZ STEED B/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 1 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | SUNSHINE SUPREME A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 8 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | JOYFUL UNION CP- R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 10 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | INNER FLAME B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 7.1 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | WINSTON'S LAD B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 33.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | MOST WELCOME CP1 V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 4 | 34.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | SWIFT SPIRIT B/XB1/TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 6 | 185.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 9.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | ROYAL AGILITY H/TT T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 3 | 226.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | SUNNY LAD B/H/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 11 | 125.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WIND N GRASS | 32.7% | 3.05 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | JAZZ STEED | 17.8% | 5.61 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 16.3% | 6.14 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | INNER FLAME | 8.1% | 12.27 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT | 7.7% | 12.98 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | WINSTON'S LAD | 4.5% | 22.08 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | SUNNY LAD | 3.0% | 33.63 | 12 |
| 8 | 5 | SUNSHINE SUPREME | 2.9% | 34.46 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | JOYFUL UNION | 2.5% | 39.57 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | MOST WELCOME | 2.2% | 45.34 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | SWIFT SPIRIT | 1.6% | 64.22 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | ROYAL AGILITY | 0.6% | 165.51 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 28.5
PLACE
4 14
10 16.5
11 16
QUINELLA
4,11 62.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 30
4,11 25.5
10,11 34.5
FORECAST
4,11 149
TIERCE
4,11,10 301
TRIO
4,10,11 63
FIRST 4
4,5,10,11 362
QUARTET
4,11,10,5 4,803
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 17.5
A3 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
8/4 54
8/11 21.5