Happy Valley · 2021-03-03
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EVER FORCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with SPONTANEOUS second and SEA ELITE third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EVER FORCE B/TT 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 2.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SPONTANEOUS V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 3.1 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | SEA ELITE H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPREME PLUS B/XB C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | CHEEKY PRAWN K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | SKY CHAMPION H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 130.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | SPLIT OF A SECOND H-/CP M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 9 | 27.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | E HONEY K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 12 | 51.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | GRACYLOVE B1 B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 11 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | MAXIMIZE HEART B A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 3 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | FIGURES TWO R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 10 | 82.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | THE MINT TT1 A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 8 | 46.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EVER FORCE | 41.6% | 2.41 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SPONTANEOUS | 14.2% | 7.02 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | MAXIMIZE HEART | 8.3% | 12.04 | 10 |
| 4 | 2 | CHEEKY PRAWN | 7.7% | 12.95 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | SUPREME PLUS | 7.4% | 13.55 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | SEA ELITE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | GRACYLOVE | 4.2% | 23.62 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 3.8% | 26.00 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | E HONEY | 3.6% | 27.45 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | THE MINT | 3.2% | 31.21 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | SKY CHAMPION | 0.7% | 150.68 | 6 |
| 12 | 3 | FIGURES TWO | 0.5% | 198.77 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 24
PLACE
1 13.5
4 13
6 28.5
QUINELLA
1,4 45
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 21
1,6 50.5
4,6 71.5
FORECAST
1,4 92
TIERCE
1,4,6 297
TRIO
1,4,6 101
FIRST 4
1,4,6,12 141
QUARTET
1,4,6,12 1,432
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 20
5TH DOUBLE
5/1 124
5/4 35