Happy Valley · 2021-03-17
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. NUREMBERG, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with HAY RUN second and YOUNG GLORY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.5 favourite SKY GEM finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NUREMBERG Wire to wire B/H/TT 2.15.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.2 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | HAY RUN Closed strongly V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 15.0 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly TT2 M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 7 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 2 | 7.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 11 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | SKY GEM C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 4.5 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 8 | 35.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | SOCKET ELITE TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 5 | 7.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | JOLLY FOREVER XB/TT H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 10 | 30.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 12 | 5.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | JOY N FUN LEGEND M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 9 | 27.0 | 18-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 6 | 59.0 | 18-3/4 |
| — | 0 | RIGHTEOUS WIN V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NUREMBERG | 22.7% | 4.40 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | SOCKET ELITE | 18.3% | 5.47 | 8 |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE PATROL | 16.7% | 5.98 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | SKY GEM | 11.0% | 9.11 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | AMAZING AGILITY | 8.0% | 12.56 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | YOUNG GLORY | 6.3% | 15.83 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 3.8% | 25.98 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | HAY RUN | 3.8% | 26.09 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | JOLLY FOREVER | 2.7% | 36.85 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 2.7% | 37.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS | 2.2% | 45.08 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS | 1.7% | 59.89 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 52
PLACE
1 18.5
2 46
11 36
QUINELLA
1,2 300
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 106
1,11 98.5
2,11 223
FORECAST
1,2 590
TIERCE
1,2,11 4,862
TRIO
1,2,11 1,052
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 1,399
QUARTET
1,2,11,10 24,696
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 24.5
A1 —
A3 —