Happy Valley · 2021-03-17
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. H Z TOURBILLON, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/2, with WINS ALL second and GRATWICK third. The 1.5 favourite WINS ALL finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | H Z TOURBILLON TT 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | WINS ALL TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 1.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | GRATWICK TT R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 3 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | OFF THE REEL H- K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 4 | 45.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | STEEL WIN A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 12 | 92.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | ACA POWER B- H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 6 | 70.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | A LA KING N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 10 | 5.2 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | MELBOURNE HALL H/XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 5 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | RED IMPACT CP1 C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 9 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | GOOD LUCK MONEY M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 7 | 50.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | RAGING BLAZE TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 16.0 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | ORION PATCH B-/PC2 M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 8 | 214.0 | 30-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WINS ALL | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | A LA KING | 20.7% | 4.83 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | RAGING BLAZE | 14.1% | 7.11 | 11 |
| 4 | 5 | MELBOURNE HALL | 6.2% | 16.22 | 8 |
| 5 | 6 | H Z TOURBILLON | 3.5% | 28.47 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | RED IMPACT | 3.0% | 32.82 | 9 |
| 7 | 12 | GOOD LUCK MONEY | 2.4% | 41.93 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 | OFF THE REEL | 2.2% | 45.87 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | STEEL WIN | 1.8% | 56.91 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | GRATWICK | 1.3% | 75.40 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | ORION PATCH | 0.9% | 113.16 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | ACA POWER | 0.6% | 156.36 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 147
PLACE
4 55
6 30
11 10.1
QUINELLA
6,11 101
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 388
4,11 72
6,11 40
FORECAST
6,11 459
TIERCE
6,11,4 5,402
TRIO
4,6,11 527
FIRST 4
4,6,7,11 2,141
QUARTET
6,11,4,7 64,022
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/6 1,692.5
1/11 18
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 56.5
A2 —