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Happy Valley · 2021-03-17

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly 1.48.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Hall 2 11.0 3/4
2 0 PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly XB M L Yeung · C Fownes 4 33.0 3/4
3 0 BRIGHT VISION Led early R Maia · P F Yiu 7 9.4 1-3/4
4 0 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B C Schofield · K L Man 1 10.0 1-3/4
5 0 DIVINE UNICORN CP-/B2/TT M F Poon · W Y So 6 20.0 2-3/4
6 0 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris 3 13.0 3-1/4
7 0 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 4.9 3-3/4
8 0 GOOD DAYS J Moreira · C S Shum 9 6.3 4-3/4
9 0 CHEERFUL STAR B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 5 15.0 5
10 0 SMART COUSIN Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 17.0 5-1/4
11 0 SHADOW BREAKER SR/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 11.0 9
12 0 BRAVE KING TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 5.0 14-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with PERFECT TO PLAY second and BRIGHT VISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite NUNCHUKS finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT—2. PERFECT TO PLAY+0.75L3. BRIGHT VISION+1.75L4. RED ELYSEES+1.75L5. DIVINE UNICORN+2.75L6. MAGNETISM+3.25L7. NUNCHUKS+3.75L8. GOOD DAYS+4.75L9. CHEERFUL STAR+5L10. SMART COUSIN+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GOOD DAYS (29.2%) finished 8th — the winner BUNDLE OF DELIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOOD DAYS 29.2% 3.43 8
2 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 11.5% 8.71 1
3 0 NUNCHUKS 10.7% 9.37 7
4 0 BRAVE KING 8.6% 11.58 12
5 0 SMART COUSIN 8.2% 12.25 10
6 0 CHEERFUL STAR 6.8% 14.72 9
7 0 MAGNETISM 5.8% 17.36 6
8 0 DIVINE UNICORN 4.3% 23.29 5
9 0 RED ELYSEES 4.1% 24.26 4
10 0 SHADOW BREAKER 4.0% 24.76 11
11 0 BRIGHT VISION 3.5% 28.70 3
12 0 PERFECT TO PLAY 3.4% 29.64 2
GOOD DAYSBUNDLE OF DELIGHT — wonNUNCHUKSBRAVE KINGSMART COUSINCHEERFUL STARMAGNETISMDIVINE UNICORNRED ELYSEESSHADOW BREAKERBRIGHT VISIONPERFECT TO PLAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 113

PLACE

1 37.5

6 29

9 87

QUINELLA

1,9 1,506

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 198

1,9 430

6,9 439.5

FORECAST

1,9 3,386

TIERCE

1,9,6 35,152

TRIO

1,6,9 4,960

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 7,421

QUARTET

1,9,6,5 190,734

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21

A1 —

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

2/1 1,651

2/9 819