Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2021-03-17

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with PERFECT TO PLAY second and BRIGHT VISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite NUNCHUKS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.48.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly 1.48.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Hall 2 11.0 3/4
2 9 PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly XB M L Yeung · C Fownes 4 33.0 3/4
3 6 BRIGHT VISION Led early R Maia · P F Yiu 7 9.4 1-3/4
4 5 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B C Schofield · K L Man 1 10.0 1-3/4
5 4 DIVINE UNICORN CP-/B2/TT M F Poon · W Y So 6 20.0 2-3/4
6 8 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris 3 13.0 3-1/4
7 3 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 4.9 3-3/4
8 12 GOOD DAYS J Moreira · C S Shum 9 6.3 4-3/4
9 11 CHEERFUL STAR B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 5 15.0 5
10 10 SMART COUSIN Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 17.0 5-1/4
11 7 SHADOW BREAKER SR/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 11.0 9
12 2 BRAVE KING TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 5.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT2. PERFECT TO PLAY+0.75L3. BRIGHT VISION+1.75L4. RED ELYSEES+1.75L5. DIVINE UNICORN+2.75L6. MAGNETISM+3.25L7. NUNCHUKS+3.75L8. GOOD DAYS+4.75L9. CHEERFUL STAR+5L10. SMART COUSIN+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GOOD DAYS (29.2%) finished 8th — the winner BUNDLE OF DELIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 GOOD DAYS 29.2% 3.43 8
2 1 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 11.5% 8.71 1
3 3 NUNCHUKS 10.7% 9.37 7
4 2 BRAVE KING 8.6% 11.58 12
5 10 SMART COUSIN 8.2% 12.25 10
6 11 CHEERFUL STAR 6.8% 14.72 9
7 8 MAGNETISM 5.8% 17.36 6
8 4 DIVINE UNICORN 4.3% 23.29 5
9 5 RED ELYSEES 4.1% 24.26 4
10 7 SHADOW BREAKER 4.0% 24.76 11
11 6 BRIGHT VISION 3.5% 28.70 3
12 9 PERFECT TO PLAY 3.4% 29.64 2
GOOD DAYSBUNDLE OF DELIGHT — wonNUNCHUKSBRAVE KINGSMART COUSINCHEERFUL STARMAGNETISMDIVINE UNICORNRED ELYSEESSHADOW BREAKERBRIGHT VISIONPERFECT TO PLAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 113

PLACE

1 37.5

6 29

9 87

QUINELLA

1,9 1,506

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 198

1,9 430

6,9 439.5

FORECAST

1,9 3,386

TIERCE

1,9,6 35,152

TRIO

1,6,9 4,960

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 7,421

QUARTET

1,9,6,5 190,734

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21

A2

A1

5TH DOUBLE

2/1 1,651

2/9 819