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Happy Valley · 2021-03-17

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LAND POWER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with INNO LEGEND second and PEAK TO PEAK third. The 2.4 favourite PEAK TO PEAK finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LAND POWER B1/TT1 1.10.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes 1 2.7 SH
2 6 INNO LEGEND CP N Callan · K L Man 7 17.0 SH
3 4 PEAK TO PEAK SR J Moreira · F C Lor 4 2.4 HD
4 7 VIVA CHEF B K C Leung · L Ho 6 10.0 1-3/4
5 3 FORTUNE HAPPINESS B C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 39.0 2
6 12 OURGOLDENRULES B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 8 55.0 4-1/2
7 2 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 12 29.0 6
8 10 CHAMPION PRIDE B1/TT Z Purton · D E Ferraris 5 6.5 7
9 9 GRAND POWER H H N Wong · C W Chang 2 257.0 7-1/4
10 5 FARIBAULT CP1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 9 107.0 7-1/4
11 8 AMAZING KNIGHT P- M F Poon · C H Yip 10 104.0 8-3/4
12 1 JUST NOT LISTENING V K Teetan · T P Yung 11 31.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LAND POWER2. INNO LEGEND+0.1L3. PEAK TO PEAK+0.2L4. VIVA CHEF+1.75L5. FORTUNE HAPPINESS+2L6. OURGOLDENRULES+4.5L7. MASTER ALBERT+6L8. CHAMPION PRIDE+7L9. GRAND POWER+7.25L10. FARIBAULT+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PEAK TO PEAK (22.5%) finished 3rd — the winner LAND POWER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PEAK TO PEAK 22.5% 4.44 3
2 10 CHAMPION PRIDE 19.3% 5.19 8
3 11 LAND POWER 13.6% 7.34 1
4 7 VIVA CHEF 12.8% 7.78 4
5 3 FORTUNE HAPPINESS 7.2% 13.89 5
6 1 JUST NOT LISTENING 6.9% 14.59 12
7 6 INNO LEGEND 4.9% 20.54 2
8 2 MASTER ALBERT 4.5% 22.13 7
9 5 FARIBAULT 3.1% 32.33 10
10 8 AMAZING KNIGHT 2.9% 33.99 11
11 12 OURGOLDENRULES 1.6% 63.14 6
12 9 GRAND POWER 0.7% 147.43 9
PEAK TO PEAKCHAMPION PRIDELAND POWER — wonVIVA CHEFFORTUNE HAPPINESSJUST NOT LISTENINGINNO LEGENDMASTER ALBERTFARIBAULTAMAZING KNIGHTOURGOLDENRULESGRAND POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 27.5

PLACE

4 12.5

6 33

11 13

QUINELLA

6,11 212.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 64

4,11 19

6,11 65.5

FORECAST

11,6 336

TIERCE

11,6,4 1,136

TRIO

4,6,11 156

FIRST 4

4,6,7,11 177

QUARTET

11,6,4,7 4,607

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/6 586.5

6/11 939.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 20.5