Happy Valley · 2021-03-17
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SPONTANEOUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/4, with GOOD SHOT second and MOONLUCK third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SPONTANEOUS 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 2.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | GOOD SHOT XB C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 7 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | MOONLUCK C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | TELECOM SMART XB R Maia · Y S Tsui | R Maia | Y S Tsui | 2 | 22.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | HAPPY GATHERING M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 34.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | E HONEY K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 4 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | SUPREME PLUS B/XB A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 3 | 6.9 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 5 | 5.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | PRINCE OF BON BON B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 106.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | SMART HUNTER B/XB M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 8 | 19.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | CHEEKY PRAWN K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 9 | 26.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 36.5% | 2.74 | 9 |
| 2 | 4 | SPONTANEOUS | 16.0% | 6.23 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | SUPREME PLUS | 9.9% | 10.13 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | CHEEKY PRAWN | 7.4% | 13.46 | 12 |
| 5 | 8 | SUNNY BABY | 6.6% | 15.13 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | MOONLUCK | 5.0% | 19.95 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD SHOT | 4.8% | 20.64 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | SMART HUNTER | 3.9% | 25.85 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | E HONEY | 3.4% | 29.22 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | PRINCE OF BON BON | 2.9% | 34.68 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | TELECOM SMART | 1.8% | 56.63 | 4 |
| 12 | 6 | HAPPY GATHERING | 1.7% | 57.70 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 25.5
PLACE
3 37.5
4 13
7 19.5
QUINELLA
3,4 175.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 68
3,7 158
4,7 38
FORECAST
4,3 362
TIERCE
4,3,7 1,640
TRIO
3,4,7 379
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 1,962
QUARTET
4,3,7,2 30,141
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/3 41
11/4 102.5