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Happy Valley · 2021-03-17

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RIGHT HONOURABLE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with SMOOTHIES second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite THE HULK finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT 1.39.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · R Gibson 11 45.0 N
2 7 SMOOTHIES Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 8 6.4 N
3 9 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early H N Wong · Y S Tsui 7 20.0 1
4 5 THE HULK V- C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 4.0 2
5 1 NABOO STAR Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 9.1 2-1/4
6 11 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 3 4.0 2-3/4
7 3 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size 9 6.5 3-1/2
8 2 STAR PERFORMANCE TT N Callan · A S Cruz 12 9.3 3-3/4
9 4 TALENTI B B Shinn · D J Whyte 2 13.0 7-1/4
10 6 WINSTON'S LAD B K C Leung · K W Lui 4 86.0 8-1/2
11 10 TOTAL POWER B M F Poon · D J Hall 10 50.0 8-1/2
12 8 SWIFT SPIRIT B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 122.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHT HONOURABLE2. SMOOTHIES+0.05L3. TELECOM FIGHTERS+1L4. THE HULK+2L5. NABOO STAR+2.25L6. GALLANT CROWN+2.75L7. INCANTO PREPARED+3.5L8. STAR PERFORMANCE+3.75L9. TALENTI+7.25L10. WINSTON'S LAD+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick NABOO STAR (19.2%) finished 5th — the winner RIGHT HONOURABLE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 NABOO STAR 19.2% 5.21 5
2 11 GALLANT CROWN 17.6% 5.68 6
3 3 INCANTO PREPARED 15.3% 6.53 7
4 7 SMOOTHIES 10.8% 9.22 2
5 5 THE HULK 9.5% 10.58 4
6 2 STAR PERFORMANCE 5.3% 18.85 8
7 9 TELECOM FIGHTERS 5.2% 19.12 3
8 10 TOTAL POWER 5.0% 20.11 11
9 12 RIGHT HONOURABLE 4.9% 20.25 1
10 6 WINSTON'S LAD 3.3% 30.54 10
11 4 TALENTI 2.9% 35.00 9
12 8 SWIFT SPIRIT 1.0% 97.31 12
NABOO STARGALLANT CROWNINCANTO PREPAREDSMOOTHIESTHE HULKSTAR PERFORMANCETELECOM FIGHTERSTOTAL POWERRIGHT HONOURABLE — wonWINSTON'S LADTALENTISWIFT SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 456.5

PLACE

7 21.5

9 58

12 94

QUINELLA

7,12 1,404

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 157

7,12 367.5

9,12 828.5

FORECAST

12,7 4,393

TIERCE

12,7,9 42,967

TRIO

7,9,12 7,497

FIRST 4

5,7,9,12 4,255

QUARTET

12,7,9,5 226,009

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 34

A1

7TH DOUBLE

4/7 240

4/12 4,200.5