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Happy Valley · 2021-03-17

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KURPANY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with HANDSOME BO BO second and WILL POWER third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 KURPANY TT 1.08.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 1 2.9 3/4
2 6 HANDSOME BO BO TT A Badel · C S Shum 11 13.0 3/4
3 1 WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 16.0 1-3/4
4 12 WINNING METHOD TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 5 4.6 2
5 2 SHINING GEM CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 39.0 2-1/4
6 5 HONG KONG BET TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 9 41.0 3-1/4
7 10 GUNNISON M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 28.0 3-1/2
8 9 IGNITING B M F Poon · K W Lui 6 3.6 3-3/4
9 4 RACING FIGHTER B/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 10 19.0 4
10 8 WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor 12 31.0 4-1/4
11 7 SCORES OF FUN TT A Hamelin · J Size 7 29.0 4-1/4
12 3 GOLD CHEST CP/TT C Schofield · R Gibson 8 22.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KURPANY2. HANDSOME BO BO+0.75L3. WILL POWER+1.75L4. WINNING METHOD+2L5. SHINING GEM+2.25L6. HONG KONG BET+3.25L7. GUNNISON+3.5L8. IGNITING+3.75L9. RACING FIGHTER+4L10. WE THE SOUTH+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KURPANY (33.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 KURPANY 33.5% 2.99 1
2 9 IGNITING 26.5% 3.77 8
3 1 WILL POWER 11.6% 8.59 3
4 4 RACING FIGHTER 5.2% 19.28 9
5 7 SCORES OF FUN 4.2% 23.83 11
6 12 WINNING METHOD 4.1% 24.68 4
7 8 WE THE SOUTH 3.8% 26.28 10
8 6 HANDSOME BO BO 3.8% 26.45 2
9 5 HONG KONG BET 2.4% 41.53 6
10 3 GOLD CHEST 2.4% 42.16 12
11 10 GUNNISON 1.4% 71.84 7
12 2 SHINING GEM 1.2% 82.92 5
KURPANY — wonIGNITINGWILL POWERRACING FIGHTERSCORES OF FUNWINNING METHODWE THE SOUTHHANDSOME BO BOHONG KONG BETGOLD CHESTGUNNISONSHINING GEM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 29

PLACE

1 37

6 35.5

11 13

QUINELLA

6,11 237.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 257.5

1,11 73

6,11 78.5

FORECAST

11,6 278

TIERCE

11,6,1 2,765

TRIO

1,6,11 770

FIRST 4

1,6,11,12 580

QUARTET

11,6,1,12 11,173

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,9,12/1,6,11 705,552

8TH DOUBLE

12/6 626.5

12/11 2,215.5

SIX UP

3,4/2,6/1,9/1,4/7,12/6,11 111,708

3 [A Badel]

TREBLE

4/12/6 9,449

4/12/11 27,734