Happy Valley · 2021-03-17
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EVER LAUGH Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 10 | 14.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE Closed strongly B/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 6 | 5.1 | N |
| 3 | 0 | BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 5.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | WINNING STEED Closed strongly B/H C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | MISTER ARM Led early R Maia · Y S Tsui | R Maia | Y S Tsui | 12 | 56.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | WINNING VOLATILITY Closed strongly B K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 2 | 9.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 5.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | CHARIZARD TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 3 | 11.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | CIGAR BUDDIES V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 9 | 132.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | HAPPY WARRIOR V-/H/CP2 K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 54.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | HAPPY FORTUNE P/TT A Hamelin · L Ho | A Hamelin | L Ho | 11 | 163.0 | 26 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EVER LAUGH, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by N, with CALIFORNIA LEVEE second and BRIGHT KID third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite SUPERBELLA finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 23.0% | 4.35 | 8 |
| 2 | 0 | SUPERBELLA | 22.1% | 4.52 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | WINNING STEED | 11.8% | 8.48 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | BRIGHT KID | 11.1% | 8.99 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | CHARIZARD | 8.6% | 11.68 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE | 6.6% | 15.15 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | EVER LAUGH | 5.3% | 18.70 | 1 |
| 8 | 0 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 3.3% | 30.57 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 2.7% | 37.34 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | CIGAR BUDDIES | 2.0% | 49.91 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | MISTER ARM | 1.8% | 56.95 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | HAPPY FORTUNE | 1.7% | 57.57 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 147
PLACE
1 19
2 43
6 17
QUINELLA
2,6 323.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 136.5
1,6 70
2,6 111.5
FORECAST
2,6 667
TIERCE
2,6,1 6,186
TRIO
1,2,6 815
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 1,724
QUARTET
2,6,1,5 53,231
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,7/1,2,6 89,906
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 24.5
4TH DOUBLE
4/2 603
4/6 54